--- title: "Lucky Grave case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lucky Grave ($161.36) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 11 items with odds, observed 94.36% over 278 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/266 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Lucky Grave](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/266) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Lucky Grave A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/266?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/266?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/266) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/266?window=all) Price · $161.36 Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $134.47 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.36% · 278 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 99.26% ±20.98 203 openings 30 days · 94.36% ±17.93 278 openings since tracking started · 94.36% ±17.93 278 openings -0.5% 61.0% 122.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/266?window=24h) | 10 | 27.27% ±94.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/266?window=7d) | 203 | 99.26% ±21.0 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/266) | 278 | 94.36% ±17.9 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/266?window=all) | 278 | 94.36% ±17.9 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 278 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1,106 | 32.9% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $683 | 20.3% | 16 | 11.1 | 1.44× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $352 | 10.5% | 13 | 11.1 | 1.17× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $291 | 8.6% | 19 | 11.1 | 1.71× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $122 | 3.6% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $97.59 | 3.6% | 17 | 13.9 | 1.22× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $67.52 | 7.5% | 44 | 41.7 | 1.06× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 15.0% | $59.48 | 6.6% | 39 | 41.7 | 0.94× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 15.0% | $51.71 | 5.8% | 37 | 41.7 | 0.89× | | [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 15.0% | $2.88 | 0.3% | 39 | 41.7 | 0.94× | | [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.22 | 0.1% | 34 | 41.7 | 0.82× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: lucky-grave)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [Boyka](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Boyka) $161 $1,106 6.86x 2026-11-08 20:28 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $161 $1,106 6.86x 2026-11-08 18:59 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $161 $1,106 6.86x 2026-11-07 17:45 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $161 $1,106 6.86x 2026-11-07 17:44 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $161 $1,106 6.86x 2026-11-06 17:03 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [Mutisaugustasm](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mutisaugustasm) $161 $1,106 6.86x 2026-11-06 07:05 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [Vlader\_man](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Vlader_man) $161 $1,106 6.86x 2026-11-06 06:18 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [Pedro Paz Omito'](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Pedro%20Paz%20Omito') $161 $1,106 6.86x 2026-11-06 06:18 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [L'Italiano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/L'Italiano) $161 $1,106 6.86x 2026-11-04 15:55 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $161 $1,106 6.86x 2026-11-04 09:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=266) [Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) [HanSF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HanSF) $161 $2.88 0.02x 2026-11-10 19:39 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) [Whimsicality](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Whimsicality) $161 $59.48 0.37x 2026-11-10 19:39 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) [BL4NK](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BL4NK) $161 $67.52 0.42x 2026-11-10 19:39 UTC [Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) [HanSF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HanSF) $161 $2.88 0.02x 2026-11-10 19:39 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) [Whimsicality](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Whimsicality) $161 $51.71 0.32x 2026-11-10 19:39 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) [BL4NK](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BL4NK) $161 $1.22 0.01x 2026-11-10 19:39 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) [✪ Rico ✪](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AA%20Rico%20%E2%9C%AA) $161 $67.52 0.42x 2026-11-10 15:04 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) [baki](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/baki) $161 $67.52 0.42x 2026-11-10 15:04 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) [Wan er Ming YL](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Wan%20er%20Ming%20YL) $161 $51.71 0.32x 2026-11-10 15:04 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) [asdadddadadadawdasdwadsawd](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/asdadddadadadawdasdwadsawd) $161 $67.52 0.42x 2026-11-10 15:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $161 | 83.33% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 4.0% covert 42.0% covert knife 9.0% extraordinary 15.0% restricted 30.0% best hit $1,106 (6.86x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt