--- title: "11.11 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "11.11 ($11.18) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.29% from 11 items with odds, observed 76.22% over 1,915 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/267 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [11.11](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/267) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · 11.11 A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/267?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/267?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/267) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/267?window=all) Price · $11.18 Advertised RTP · 83.29% · EV $9.31 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.22% · 1,915 openings, odds method Variance · 12.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 61.33% ±41.30 270 openings 7 days · 76.18% ±16.85 1,621 openings 30 days · 76.22% ±15.51 1,915 openings since tracking started · 76.22% ±15.51 1,915 openings 19.5% 61.5% 103.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/267?window=24h) | 270 | 61.33% ±41.3 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/267?window=7d) | 1,621 | 76.18% ±16.9 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/267) | 1,915 | 76.22% ±15.5 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/267?window=all) | 1,915 | 76.22% ±15.5 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,964 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,700 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,348 | $837 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $702 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,846 | $695 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 3,226 | $464 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,778 | $368 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $265 | 1.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 313 | $199 | 6.8% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.27× | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $32.96 | 33.6% | 182 | 186.6 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-well-worn) | 21.0% | $17.59 | 39.7% | 425 | 412.6 | 1.03× | | [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 69.0% | $0.90 | 6.7% | 1,348 | 1354.6 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: 1111-2019)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=267) [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) [freberekk](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/freberekk) $11.18 $32.96 2.95x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-well-worn) [freberekk](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/freberekk) $11.18 $17.59 1.57x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [freberekk](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/freberekk) $11.18 $0.90 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-well-worn) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $11.18 $17.59 1.57x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC [USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [J M | レッドワン](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/J%20M%20%7C%20%20%E3%83%AC%E3%83%83%E3%83%89%E3%83%AF%E3%83%B3) $11.18 $0.90 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC [USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [Johnny ´PP\`](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Johnny%20%C2%B4PP%60) $11.18 $0.90 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC [USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $11.18 $0.90 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC [USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [J M | レッドワン](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/J%20M%20%7C%20%20%E3%83%AC%E3%83%83%E3%83%89%E3%83%AF%E3%83%B3) $11.18 $0.90 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC [USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [Johnny ´PP\`](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Johnny%20%C2%B4PP%60) $11.18 $0.90 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC [USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [Royal Shark](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Royal%20Shark) $11.18 $0.90 0.08x 2026-11-11 08:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.18 | 83.29% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.3% Covert 0.0% sunny 0.0% classified 9.5% restricted 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.29 on average: an expected loss of $16.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt