--- title: "Black Friday case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Black Friday ($10.48) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.34% from 15 items with odds, observed 88.42% over 1,211 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/268 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Black Friday](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/268) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Black Friday A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/268?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/268?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/268) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/268?window=all) Price · $10.48 Advertised RTP · 83.34% · EV $8.73 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.42% · 1,211 openings, odds method Variance · 18.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83.54% ±81.17 109 openings 7 days · 92.27% ±26.60 1,015 openings 30 days · 88.42% ±24.35 1,211 openings since tracking started · 88.42% ±24.35 1,211 openings 1.5% 83.5% 165.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/268?window=24h) | 109 | 83.54% ±81.2 | +0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/268?window=7d) | 1,015 | 92.27% ±26.6 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/268) | 1,211 | 88.42% ±24.4 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/268?window=all) | 1,211 | 88.42% ±24.4 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,211 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,412 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,463 | 5.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $142 | 4.9% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $127 | 5.8% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $82.43 | 5.7% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.51× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $81.64 | 5.6% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.83× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $74.43 | 6.0% | 11 | 8.5 | 1.30× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $70.66 | 5.7% | 8 | 8.5 | 0.94× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $26.47 | 6.1% | 25 | 24.2 | 1.03× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $14.07 | 6.4% | 56 | 48.4 | 1.16× | | [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $8.68 | 8.0% | 95 | 96.9 | 0.98× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $8.16 | 8.1% | 99 | 104.8 | 0.95× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-well-worn) | 10.0% | $7.35 | 8.4% | 138 | 121.1 | 1.14× | | [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 24.0% | $3.74 | 10.3% | 284 | 290.6 | 0.98× | | [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) | 40.0% | $1.88 | 8.6% | 470 | 484.4 | 0.97× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: black-friday-2019)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) [Believer.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Believer.) $10.48 $1,463 139.6x 2026-11-08 16:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=268) [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [Tamerunal98](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Tamerunal98) $10.48 $8.16 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) [Hath Master](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Hath%20Master) $10.48 $1.88 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-well-worn) [\`bizzkit](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%60bizzkit) $10.48 $8.68 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) [Bugghappen](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Bugghappen) $10.48 $3.74 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) [Pekelnicek](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Pekelnicek) $10.48 $26.47 2.53x 2026-11-11 12:32 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) [Correac](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Correac) $10.48 $1.88 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:32 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $10.48 $1.88 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:32 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $10.48 $8.16 0.78x 2026-11-11 12:32 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $10.48 $1.88 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:32 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $10.48 $1.88 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.48 | 83.34% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 10.7% covert 2.7% Ancient 0.6% classified 46.0% pink 40.0% best hit $1,463 (139.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.34 on average: an expected loss of $16.66 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt