--- title: "2020 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "2020 ($3.13) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.10% from 15 items with odds, observed 84.35% over 3,574 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/269 rendered: 2026-11-11T18:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [2020](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/269) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · 2020 A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/269?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/269?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/269) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/269?window=all) Price · $3.13 Advertised RTP · 83.10% · EV $2.60 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.35% · 3,574 openings, odds method Variance · 59.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 192 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 683 openings · below min 7 days · 80.25% ±28.27 2,879 openings 30 days · 84.35% ±25.37 3,574 openings since tracking started · 84.35% ±25.37 3,574 openings 0.0% 58.8% 117.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/269?window=24h) | 683 | 58.74% ±58.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/269?window=7d) | 2,879 | 80.25% ±28.3 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/269) | 3,574 | 84.35% ±25.4 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/269?window=all) | 3,574 | 84.35% ±25.4 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,584 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,016 | 3.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $900 | 3.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $666 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $576 | 6.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $500 | 9.6% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $197 | 7.6% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.40× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $129 | 5.0% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.40× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $129 | 5.0% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $119 | 4.6% | 10 | 3.6 | 2.79× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $54.56 | 2.1% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $46.99 | 1.8% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.84× | | [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $30.01 | 2.3% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× | | [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $20.56 | 2.4% | 9 | 10.8 | 0.84× | | [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) | 39.8% | $1.57 | 24.0% | 1,428 | 1425.7 | 1.00× | | [Galil AR \| Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-battle-scarred) | 59.0% | $0.73 | 16.6% | 2,112 | 2114.6 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: 2020)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) [Sekuuuuu\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Sekuuuuu*-1628837) $3.13 $1,016 324.5x 2026-11-05 14:34 UTC [★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-field-tested) [✪TulipanTapo$o✪](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AATulipanTapo%24o%E2%9C%AA) $3.13 $900 287.7x 2026-11-03 09:48 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) [renzo](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/renzo) $3.13 $197 62.81x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) [MariaJuana](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MariaJuana) $3.13 $197 62.81x 2026-11-09 06:04 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) [DragonLoli4Life](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/DragonLoli4Life) $3.13 $197 62.81x 2026-11-08 01:46 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) [wild ranger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/wild%20ranger) $3.13 $197 62.81x 2026-11-07 11:44 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) [Manni Mond // hellcase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Manni%20Mond%20%2F%2F%20hellcase.com) $3.13 $197 62.81x 2026-11-03 19:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=269) [Galil AR | Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-battle-scarred) [AYLİN](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/AYL%C4%B0N) $3.13 $0.73 0.23x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [Galil AR | Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-battle-scarred) [Lil.Jet](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Lil.Jet) $3.13 $0.73 0.23x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [Galil AR | Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-battle-scarred) [MiCkEy MoUse\`│Crazy™](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MiCkEy%20MoUse%60%E2%94%82Crazy%E2%84%A2) $3.13 $0.73 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:54 UTC [Galil AR | Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-battle-scarred) [NFJK\_ANIMATION](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/NFJK_ANIMATION) $3.13 $0.73 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:54 UTC [Galil AR | Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-battle-scarred) [♥ski♥mask♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%99%A5ski%E2%99%A5mask%E2%99%A5) $3.13 $0.73 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:50 UTC [Galil AR | Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-battle-scarred) [STASIEKKKKK](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/STASIEKKKKK) $3.13 $0.73 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:50 UTC [Galil AR | Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-battle-scarred) [222222222222222222222222222](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/222222222222222222222222222) $3.13 $0.73 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:50 UTC [Galil AR | Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-battle-scarred) [Anggur Merah](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Anggur%20Merah) $3.13 $0.73 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:50 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) [oNOOKo](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/oNOOKo) $3.13 $1.57 0.50x 2026-11-11 17:50 UTC [Galil AR | Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-battle-scarred) [Tunaboy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Tunaboy) $3.13 $0.73 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.13 | 83.10% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% gold 0.0% epic 0.0% classified 0.2% violet 0.2% pink 0.3% mil spec 39.8% restricted 59.0% best hit $1,016 (324.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.10 on average: an expected loss of $16.90 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt