--- title: "Arena Chest case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Arena Chest ($7.01) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.29% from 19 items with odds, observed 67.92% over 1,524 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/270 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Arena Chest](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/270) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Arena Chest A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/270?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/270?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/270) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/270?window=all) Price · $7.01 Advertised RTP · 83.29% · EV $5.84 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 67.92% · 1,524 openings, odds method Variance · 23.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 51 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 159 openings · below min 7 days · 73.13% ±27.25 1,219 openings 30 days · 67.92% ±24.37 1,524 openings since tracking started · 67.92% ±24.37 1,524 openings -0.5% 65.5% 131.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/270?window=24h) | 159 | 55.19% ±75.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/270?window=7d) | 1,219 | 73.13% ±27.2 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/270) | 1,524 | 67.92% ±24.4 | −1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/270?window=all) | 1,524 | 67.92% ±24.4 | −1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,544 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,450 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $437 | 3.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $417 | 3.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $321 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $296 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $281 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $218 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $210 | 2.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 1,429 | $195 | 2.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $175 | 3.0% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $155 | 4.0% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 571 | $112 | 3.4% | 6 | 2.7 | 2.22× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $96.73 | 3.3% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $72.63 | 4.4% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $53.02 | 4.5% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $26.02 | 4.5% | 19 | 15.4 | 1.23× | | [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $10.57 | 5.4% | 38 | 46.3 | 0.82× | | [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $7.72 | 5.3% | 67 | 61.8 | 1.08× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) | 90.0% | $2.21 | 34.1% | 1,397 | 1390.0 | 1.01× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: arena-chest)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $7.01 $437 62.33x 2026-11-08 07:35 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [SANTOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SANTOS) $7.01 $417 59.48x 2026-11-09 20:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=270) [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) [Maniac](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Maniac) $7.01 $26.02 3.71x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [MaDaRa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MaDaRa) $7.01 $2.21 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [Mantelli](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mantelli) $7.01 $2.21 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [Maniac](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Maniac) $7.01 $2.21 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [MaDaRa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MaDaRa) $7.01 $2.21 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [Mantelli](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mantelli) $7.01 $2.21 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [AT11](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/AT11) $7.01 $2.21 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [陈大佬](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E9%99%88%E5%A4%A7%E4%BD%AC) $7.01 $2.21 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [General pp](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/General%20pp) $7.01 $2.21 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-minimal-wear) [Zyaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Zyaa) $7.01 $7.72 1.10x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.01 | 83.29% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.6% epic 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% covert knife 0.1% restricted 90.2% classified 5.0% violet 3.0% best hit $437 (62.33x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.29 on average: an expected loss of $16.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt