--- title: "Arena Treasure case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Arena Treasure ($99.98) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 22 items with odds, observed 88.58% over 3,367 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/271 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Arena Treasure](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/271) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Arena Treasure A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/271?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/271?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/271) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/271?window=all) Price · $99.98 Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $83.31 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.58% · 3,367 openings, odds method Variance · 14.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93 openings · below min 7 days · 88.16% ±12.92 3,257 openings 30 days · 88.58% ±12.71 3,367 openings since tracking started · 88.58% ±12.71 3,367 openings 74.5% 205.8% 337.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/271?window=24h) | 93 | 259.97% ±76.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/271?window=7d) | 3,257 | 88.16% ±12.9 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/271) | 3,367 | 88.58% ±12.7 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/271?window=all) | 3,367 | 88.58% ±12.7 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,367 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $8,572 | 15.4% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $2,647 | 7.9% | 10 | 8.4 | 1.19× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $900 | 3.8% | 12 | 11.8 | 1.02× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 204 | $751 | 4.4% | 17 | 16.5 | 1.03× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $723 | 4.3% | 26 | 16.8 | 1.54× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $720 | 4.3% | 18 | 16.8 | 1.07× | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $572 | 3.4% | 24 | 16.8 | 1.43× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $551 | 3.3% | 19 | 16.8 | 1.13× | | [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $441 | 4.2% | 25 | 26.9 | 0.93× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $342 | 4.1% | 42 | 33.7 | 1.25× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $293 | 4.9% | 48 | 47.1 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $217 | 4.5% | 46 | 57.6 | 0.80× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $175 | 4.2% | 66 | 67.3 | 0.98× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $110 | 4.0% | 110 | 101.0 | 1.09× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $83.12 | 5.0% | 162 | 168.4 | 0.96× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $61.28 | 4.4% | 201 | 202.0 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $46.37 | 3.9% | 237 | 235.7 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $44.76 | 3.8% | 266 | 235.7 | 1.13× | | [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $29.90 | 3.2% | 293 | 303.0 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $20.65 | 2.5% | 335 | 336.7 | 0.99× | | [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 17.0% | $12.13 | 2.5% | 549 | 572.4 | 0.96× | | [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 25.9% | $6.14 | 1.9% | 856 | 870.4 | 0.98× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: arena-treasure)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Bruh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Bruh) $99.98 $8,572 85.74x 2026-11-10 19:29 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $99.98 $8,572 85.74x 2026-11-10 16:13 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [猛干老外](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%8C%9B%E5%B9%B2%E8%80%81%E5%A4%96) $99.98 $8,572 85.74x 2026-11-09 08:24 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $99.98 $8,572 85.74x 2026-11-08 06:46 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $99.98 $8,572 85.74x 2026-11-08 06:41 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $99.98 $2,647 26.47x 2026-11-10 16:14 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $99.98 $2,647 26.47x 2026-11-09 08:32 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $99.98 $2,647 26.47x 2026-11-09 08:04 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $99.98 $2,647 26.47x 2026-11-09 07:32 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [猛干老外](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%8C%9B%E5%B9%B2%E8%80%81%E5%A4%96) $99.98 $2,647 26.47x 2026-11-08 07:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=271) [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $99.98 $6.14 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $99.98 $20.65 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $99.98 $342 3.42x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $99.98 $12.13 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $99.98 $20.65 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) [鲨鱼辣椒](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E9%B2%A8%E9%B1%BC%E8%BE%A3%E6%A4%92) $99.98 $6.14 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $99.98 $6.14 0.06x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $99.98 $6.14 0.06x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $99.98 $46.37 0.46x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $99.98 $20.65 0.21x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $99.98 | 83.33% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.1% covert 7.1% legendary 0.3% extraordinary 6.5% epic 0.5% restricted 26.7% classified 37.7% covert knife 2.0% Ancient 5.0% red 7.0% mil spec 7.0% best hit $8,572 (85.74x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt