--- title: "Fight the pandemic case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Fight the pandemic ($0.56) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 82.95% from 15 items with odds, observed 81.78% over 37.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/272 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Fight the pandemic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/272) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Fight the pandemic A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/272?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/272?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/272) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/272?window=all) Price · $0.56 Advertised RTP · 82.95% · EV $0.46 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.78% · 37.5K openings, odds method Variance · 85.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 77.28% ±24.12 5,613 openings 7 days · 84.20% ±10.07 32.2K openings 30 days · 81.78% ±9.33 37.5K openings since tracking started · 81.78% ±9.33 37.5K openings 52.5% 77.3% 102.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/272?window=24h) | 5,613 | 77.28% ±24.1 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/272?window=7d) | 32.2K | 84.20% ±10.1 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/272) | 37.5K | 81.78% ±9.33 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/272?window=all) | 37.5K | 81.78% ±9.33 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37.7K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $475 | 10.2% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.33× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $142 | 3.1% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.27× | | [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $110 | 2.4% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.80× | | [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $17.44 | 2.6% | 25 | 26.4 | 0.95× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $14.07 | 3.0% | 28 | 37.7 | 0.74× | | [AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $5.50 | 5.9% | 177 | 188.4 | 0.94× | | [MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $5.06 | 5.4% | 188 | 188.4 | 1.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $3.53 | 7.6% | 369 | 376.8 | 0.98× | | [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $3.27 | 7.0% | 349 | 376.8 | 0.93× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.71 | 7.4% | 769 | 753.6 | 1.02× | | [P250 \| Vino Primo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.28 | 8.3% | 1,120 | 1130.4 | 0.99× | | [AUG \| Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.98 | 10.5% | 1,855 | 1884.1 | 0.98× | | [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.46 | 9.9% | 3,775 | 3768.1 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.35 | 11.3% | 5,660 | 5652.1 | 1.00× | | [SSG 08 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-field-tested) | 61.8% | $0.04 | 5.3% | 23,357 | 23286.9 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: fight-the-pandemic)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AUG | Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) [bi bas emo bn :(](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/bi%20bas%20emo%20bn%20%3A%28) $0.56 $475 847.6x 2026-11-09 21:55 UTC [AUG | Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) [preeeeeeeeee@!](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/preeeeeeeeee%40!) $0.56 $475 847.6x 2026-11-09 17:09 UTC [AUG | Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) [RUSH B](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/RUSH%20B) $0.56 $475 847.6x 2026-11-09 01:12 UTC [AUG | Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) [Rookie](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Rookie) $0.56 $475 847.6x 2026-11-06 22:55 UTC [AUG | Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $0.56 $475 847.6x 2026-11-05 11:23 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [Hauler](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Hauler) $0.56 $142 253.6x 2026-11-08 20:12 UTC [MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $0.56 $110 196.1x 2026-11-11 02:57 UTC [MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-minimal-wear) [我拿AK47突突突你死](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E6%88%91%E6%8B%BFAK47%E7%AA%81%E7%AA%81%E7%AA%81%E4%BD%A0%E6%AD%BB) $0.56 $110 196.1x 2026-11-10 14:07 UTC [MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-minimal-wear) [lil masterpiec3](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/lil%20masterpiec3) $0.56 $110 196.1x 2026-11-08 07:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=272) [SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-field-tested) [Can I get an OhHH YeeEEaaaHH?](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Can%20I%20get%20an%20OhHH%20YeeEEaaaHH%3F) $0.56 $0.04 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC [SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-field-tested) [MrGuitarBoi](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MrGuitarBoi) $0.56 $0.04 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC [MP9 | Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) [Maniac](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Maniac) $0.56 $0.35 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC [SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-field-tested) [Kapitan Gówienow](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Kapitan%20G%C3%B3wienow) $0.56 $0.04 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) [Cardano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Cardano) $0.56 $0.98 1.75x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [MP9 | Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) [Kapitan Gówienow](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Kapitan%20G%C3%B3wienow) $0.56 $0.35 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [MP9 | Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) [Cardano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Cardano) $0.56 $0.35 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [MP9 | Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) [Kapitan Gówienow](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Kapitan%20G%C3%B3wienow) $0.56 $0.35 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-field-tested) [Cardano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Cardano) $0.56 $0.04 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) [Kapitan Gówienow](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Kapitan%20G%C3%B3wienow) $0.56 $0.46 0.82x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.56 | 82.95% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 16.5% covert 0.0% violet 0.1% classified 0.1% Legendary 0.5% #8847ff 1.0% Mythical 5.0% mil spec 15.0% consumer 61.8% best hit $475 (847.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $82.95 on average: an expected loss of $17.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt