--- title: "Spring Fever case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Spring Fever ($2.17) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.05% from 15 items with odds, observed 79.27% over 5,252 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/273 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Spring Fever](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/273) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Spring Fever A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/273?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/273?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/273) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/273?window=all) Price · $2.17 Advertised RTP · 83.05% · EV $1.80 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.27% · 5,252 openings, odds method Variance · 46.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 154 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 689 openings · below min 7 days · 77.48% ±19.93 4,445 openings 30 days · 79.27% ±18.34 5,252 openings since tracking started · 79.27% ±18.34 5,252 openings 18.5% 69.8% 121.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/273?window=24h) | 689 | 69.72% ±50.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/273?window=7d) | 4,445 | 77.48% ±19.9 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/273) | 5,252 | 79.27% ±18.3 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/273?window=all) | 5,252 | 79.27% ±18.3 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,264 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $445 | 12.3% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $326 | 9.1% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $244 | 6.8% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.52× | | [MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $128 | 3.5% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $92.80 | 2.6% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× | | [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $78.76 | 4.4% | 8 | 5.3 | 1.52× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $76.20 | 4.2% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× | | [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $74.71 | 4.1% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $72.06 | 4.0% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $8.80 | 2.4% | 36 | 26.3 | 1.37× | | [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $8.24 | 2.3% | 30 | 26.3 | 1.14× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $7.65 | 4.2% | 59 | 52.6 | 1.12× | | [MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $6.81 | 5.7% | 69 | 79.0 | 0.87× | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-battle-scarred) | 34.9% | $0.83 | 16.1% | 1,859 | 1834.5 | 1.01× | | [P90 \| Traction (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-field-tested) | 61.0% | $0.54 | 18.3% | 3,178 | 3211.0 | 0.99× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: spring-fever)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Stiletto Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [猪耳朵不好吃](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%8C%AA%E8%80%B3%E6%9C%B5%E4%B8%8D%E5%A5%BD%E5%90%83) $2.17 $445 205.1x 2026-11-08 10:23 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Virtus.Pro PashaBiceps](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Virtus.Pro%20PashaBiceps) $2.17 $445 205.1x 2026-11-03 22:15 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) [KeenKong](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/KeenKong) $2.17 $326 150.4x 2026-11-07 16:41 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Se1mon](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Se1mon) $2.17 $244 112.4x 2026-11-11 02:37 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $2.17 $244 112.4x 2026-11-08 01:05 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [执笔戏红颜.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E6%89%A7%E7%AC%94%E6%88%8F%E7%BA%A2%E9%A2%9C.) $2.17 $244 112.4x 2026-11-06 09:30 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Kkwazzawazzakkwaquikkwalaquaza '](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Kkwazzawazzakkwaquikkwalaquaza%20') $2.17 $244 112.4x 2026-11-04 02:58 UTC [MAC-10 | Copper Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-field-tested) [San Fort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/San%20Fort) $2.17 $128 58.80x 2026-11-10 14:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Copper Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-field-tested) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $2.17 $128 58.80x 2026-11-10 07:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=273) [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) [Hayllan Bodybuilder](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Hayllan%20Bodybuilder) $2.17 $7.65 3.53x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC [Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-battle-scarred) [Sqonchi](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Sqonchi) $2.17 $0.83 0.38x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC [P90 | Traction (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-field-tested) [✪ Kim Jong-un](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AA%20Kim%20Jong-un) $2.17 $0.54 0.25x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [P90 | Traction (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-field-tested) [小苏154480250](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%B0%8F%E8%8B%8F154480250) $2.17 $0.54 0.25x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [P90 | Traction (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-field-tested) [ReeSky](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/ReeSky) $2.17 $0.54 0.25x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [P90 | Traction (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-field-tested) [✪ Kim Jong-un](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AA%20Kim%20Jong-un) $2.17 $0.54 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-battle-scarred) [小苏154480250](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%B0%8F%E8%8B%8F154480250) $2.17 $0.83 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [P90 | Traction (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-field-tested) [ReeSky](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/ReeSky) $2.17 $0.54 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-battle-scarred) [Mantelli](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mantelli) $2.17 $0.83 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [P90 | Traction (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-field-tested) [Epixess](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Epixess) $2.17 $0.54 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.17 | 83.05% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% gold 0.1% mil spec 61.0% restricted 35.5% classified 1.6% #d32ee6 0.5% Legendary 1.0% best hit $445 (205.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.05 on average: an expected loss of $16.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt