--- title: "Big 50 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Big 50 ($43.89) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 14 items with odds, observed 71.07% over 587 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/274 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Big 50](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/274) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Big 50 A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/274?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/274?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/274) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/274?window=all) Price · $43.89 Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $36.57 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.07% · 587 openings, odds method Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84 openings · below min 7 days · 69.18% ±17.97 495 openings 30 days · 71.07% ±16.50 587 openings since tracking started · 71.07% ±16.50 587 openings 23.5% 67.8% 112.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/274?window=24h) | 84 | 67.79% ±43.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/274?window=7d) | 495 | 69.18% ±18.0 | −1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/274) | 587 | 71.07% ±16.5 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/274?window=all) | 587 | 71.07% ±16.5 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 595 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,570 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $373 | 5.1% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $168 | 4.6% | 2 | 6.0 | 0.34× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $121 | 3.3% | 2 | 6.0 | 0.34× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $110 | 3.0% | 10 | 6.0 | 1.68× | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $99.39 | 2.7% | 2 | 6.0 | 0.34× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $92.41 | 5.1% | 11 | 11.9 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $80.62 | 6.6% | 23 | 17.8 | 1.29× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $76.39 | 10.4% | 20 | 29.8 | 0.67× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $74.37 | 11.0% | 30 | 32.1 | 0.93× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $41.47 | 22.7% | 123 | 119.0 | 1.03× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 20.0% | $20.21 | 11.1% | 124 | 119.0 | 1.04× | | [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 20.0% | $10.97 | 6.0% | 119 | 119.0 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) | 20.0% | $2.62 | 1.4% | 127 | 119.0 | 1.07× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: big-50)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=274) [MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $43.89 $10.97 0.25x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $43.89 $2.62 0.06x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $43.89 $2.62 0.06x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC [MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $43.89 $20.21 0.46x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC [MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $43.89 $10.97 0.25x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC [MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) [642438](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/642438) $43.89 $20.21 0.46x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC [MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $43.89 $10.97 0.25x 2026-11-11 08:45 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $43.89 $41.47 0.94x 2026-11-11 08:45 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [642438](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/642438) $43.89 $74.37 1.69x 2026-11-11 08:45 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $43.89 $92.41 2.11x 2026-11-11 08:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $43.89 | 83.32% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 14.0% covert knife 1.0% gold 5.0% Classified 20.0% pink 20.0% restricted 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt