--- title: "Summer Fun case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Summer Fun ($3.99) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.20% from 14 items with odds, observed 73.83% over 2,864 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/276 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Summer Fun](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/276) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Summer Fun A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/276?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/276?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/276) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/276?window=all) Price · $3.99 Advertised RTP · 83.20% · EV $3.32 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 73.83% · 2,864 openings, odds method Variance · 46.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 47 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 74.67% ±60.58 485 openings 7 days · 79.29% ±27.39 2,373 openings 30 days · 73.83% ±24.93 2,864 openings since tracking started · 73.83% ±24.93 2,864 openings 13.5% 74.8% 136.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/276?window=24h) | 485 | 74.67% ±60.6 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/276?window=7d) | 2,373 | 79.29% ±27.4 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/276) | 2,864 | 73.83% ±24.9 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/276?window=all) | 2,864 | 73.83% ±24.9 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,874 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,412 | 7.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $389 | 4.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.87× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $207 | 4.4% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.99× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $76.74 | 4.6% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.70× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $69.13 | 6.2% | 9 | 8.6 | 1.04× | | [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $61.64 | 9.3% | 14 | 14.4 | 0.97× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $46.24 | 13.9% | 29 | 28.7 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $13.49 | 8.1% | 66 | 57.5 | 1.15× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $6.84 | 10.3% | 119 | 143.7 | 0.83× | | [P2000 \| Obsidian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $6.72 | 10.1% | 120 | 143.7 | 0.84× | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $4.21 | 7.5% | 157 | 169.0 | 0.93× | | [Charm \| Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) | 10.0% | $1.85 | 5.6% | 298 | 287.4 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.93 | 5.6% | 597 | 574.8 | 1.04× | | [MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-well-worn) | 50.0% | $0.16 | 2.4% | 1,458 | 1437.0 | 1.01× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: summer-fun)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) [Mutisaugustasm](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mutisaugustasm) $3.99 $389 97.50x 2026-11-06 06:40 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [Cloud](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Cloud) $3.99 $207 51.91x 2026-11-09 03:29 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [AndyberkZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/AndyberkZ) $3.99 $207 51.91x 2026-11-08 18:57 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=276) [MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-well-worn) [1124827605](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/1124827605) $3.99 $0.16 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-well-worn) [RetroGod](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/RetroGod) $3.99 $6.84 1.71x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-well-worn) [RetroGod](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/RetroGod) $3.99 $0.16 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-well-worn) [Tamerunal98](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Tamerunal98) $3.99 $0.16 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) [WHITEBEARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/WHITEBEARD) $3.99 $4.21 1.06x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-well-worn) [abd28](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/abd28) $3.99 $0.16 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-well-worn) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $3.99 $0.16 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-well-worn) [DeadSociety](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/DeadSociety) $3.99 $0.16 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-well-worn) [Re.Emilia](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Re.Emilia) $3.99 $0.16 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-well-worn) [陈大佬](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E9%99%88%E5%A4%A7%E4%BD%AC) $3.99 $0.16 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.99 | 83.20% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 5.0% covert 1.1% covert knife 0.2% gold 0.3% classified 5.5% Legendary 2.0% #8847ff 5.9% uncommon 10.0% milspec 20.0% #4b69ff 50.0% best hit $389 (97.50x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.20 on average: an expected loss of $16.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt