--- title: "Biba Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Biba Case ($23.11) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 28 items with odds, observed 80.89% over 2,729 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/278 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Biba Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/278) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Biba Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/278?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/278?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/278) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/278?window=all) Price · $23.11 Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $19.25 from 28 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.89% · 2,729 openings, odds method Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80.78% ±21.66 291 openings 7 days · 80.69% ±8.19 2,033 openings 30 days · 80.89% ±7.07 2,729 openings since tracking started · 80.89% ±7.07 2,729 openings 58.5% 80.8% 103.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/278?window=24h) | 291 | 80.78% ±21.7 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/278?window=7d) | 2,033 | 80.69% ±8.19 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/278) | 2,729 | 80.89% ±7.07 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/278?window=all) | 2,729 | 80.89% ±7.07 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,732 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,635 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,782 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,494 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,078 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $590 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.46× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $405 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $226 | 1.2% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× | | [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $166 | 1.7% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.10× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $152 | 1.6% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.46× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $139 | 1.4% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.46× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $117 | 1.2% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $77.17 | 2.0% | 17 | 13.7 | 1.24× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $54.00 | 2.8% | 27 | 27.3 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $53.08 | 2.8% | 20 | 27.3 | 0.73× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $51.01 | 4.0% | 37 | 41.0 | 0.90× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $47.44 | 3.7% | 53 | 41.0 | 1.29× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $45.93 | 3.6% | 39 | 41.0 | 0.95× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $44.19 | 3.4% | 34 | 41.0 | 0.83× | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $42.41 | 3.4% | 50 | 42.6 | 1.17× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $35.37 | 7.3% | 115 | 109.3 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $21.38 | 6.6% | 157 | 161.2 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $19.77 | 7.2% | 182 | 191.2 | 0.95× | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $17.90 | 7.4% | 208 | 218.6 | 0.95× | | [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $14.60 | 6.8% | 259 | 245.9 | 1.05× | | [XM1014 \| XOXO (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $11.28 | 5.9% | 289 | 273.2 | 1.06× | | [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $8.57 | 6.7% | 400 | 409.8 | 0.98× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $8.41 | 6.6% | 403 | 409.8 | 0.98× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 15.0% | $8.38 | 6.5% | 410 | 409.8 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: biba-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $23.11 $590 25.51x 2026-11-06 10:50 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) [RetroGod](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/RetroGod) $23.11 $590 25.51x 2026-11-03 04:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=278) [Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $23.11 $17.90 0.77x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $23.11 $14.60 0.63x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $23.11 $8.57 0.37x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $23.11 $11.28 0.49x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [P90 | Nostalgia (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $23.11 $8.41 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [P90 | Nostalgia (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-minimal-wear) [whitefox](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/whitefox) $23.11 $8.41 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [AWP | Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $23.11 $19.77 0.86x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [P90 | Nostalgia (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $23.11 $8.41 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $23.11 $14.60 0.63x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [P90 | Nostalgia (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-minimal-wear) [whitefox](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/whitefox) $23.11 $8.41 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $23.11 | 83.32% | 28 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.8% restricted 24.0% classified 31.1% Ancient 1.5% consumer 1.6% Legendary 22.0% #d32ee6 15.0% best hit $590 (25.51x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt