--- title: "Bones case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Bones ($6.10) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.27% from 10 items with odds, observed 86.99% over 1,937 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/280 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Bones](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/280) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Bones A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/280?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/280?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/280) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/280?window=all) Price · $6.10 Advertised RTP · 83.27% · EV $5.08 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.99% · 1,937 openings, odds method Variance · 24.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 44 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 209 openings · below min 7 days · 91.37% ±23.53 1,664 openings 30 days · 86.99% ±21.81 1,937 openings since tracking started · 86.99% ±21.81 1,937 openings 64.5% 132.0% 199.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/280?window=24h) | 209 | 132.45% ±66.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/280?window=7d) | 1,664 | 91.37% ±23.5 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/280) | 1,937 | 86.99% ±21.8 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/280?window=all) | 1,937 | 86.99% ±21.8 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,983 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,085 | 10.7% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $274 | 10.8% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.26× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $116 | 11.4% | 14 | 9.9 | 1.41× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $102 | 10.0% | 8 | 9.9 | 0.81× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $69.92 | 13.8% | 20 | 19.8 | 1.01× | | [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $8.14 | 8.0% | 77 | 99.2 | 0.78× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $6.25 | 7.4% | 111 | 119.0 | 0.93× | | [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 15.0% | $5.59 | 16.5% | 309 | 297.4 | 1.04× | | [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $1.64 | 8.1% | 470 | 495.8 | 0.95× | | [M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) | 46.8% | $0.36 | 3.3% | 968 | 927.1 | 1.04× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: bones)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [MichuOfficialPL♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MichuOfficialPL%E2%99%A5) $6.10 $1,085 177.9x 2026-11-07 03:10 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=280) [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [RetroGod](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/RetroGod) $6.10 $5.59 0.92x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) [白色领带Oba](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%99%BD%E8%89%B2%E9%A2%86%E5%B8%A6Oba) $6.10 $0.36 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) [Pucho](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Pucho) $6.10 $0.36 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [Mayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mayers) $6.10 $5.59 0.92x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) [Negritow 2](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Negritow%202) $6.10 $0.36 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) [DHame](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/DHame) $6.10 $0.36 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) [\`bizzkit](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%60bizzkit) $6.10 $1.64 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [Pucho](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Pucho) $6.10 $5.59 0.92x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) [Mayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mayers) $6.10 $0.36 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [Negritow 2](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Negritow%202) $6.10 $5.59 0.92x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.10 | 83.27% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% gold 0.2% covert 1.0% classified 1.0% restricted 5.0% Legendary 21.0% violet 25.0% Rare 46.8% best hit $1,085 (177.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.27 on average: an expected loss of $16.73 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt