---
title: "Grim case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Grim ($13.73) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.28% from 21 items with odds, observed 84.40% over 1,929 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/287
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Grim](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/287)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Grim

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/287?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/287?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/287) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/287?window=all)

Price · $13.73

Advertised RTP · 83.28% · EV $11.43 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.40% · 1,929 openings, odds method

Variance · 32.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 62.06% ±87.55 165 openings

7 days · 86.68% ±27.60 1,660 openings

30 days · 84.40% ±25.60 1,929 openings

since tracking started · 84.40% ±25.60 1,929 openings

-0.5% 75.0% 150.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/287?window=24h) | 165 | 62.06% ±87.5 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/287?window=7d) | 1,660 | 86.68% ±27.6 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/287) | 1,929 | 84.40% ±25.6 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/287?window=all) | 1,929 | 84.40% ±25.6 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,932 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $7,147 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,724 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,140 | 2.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,112 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,086 | 1.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,058 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,005 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $842 | 3.7% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $749 | 3.3% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $609 | 2.7% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $374 | 3.3% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $172 | 3.0% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.52× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $79.13 | 3.5% | 8 | 9.7 | 0.83× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $70.58 | 3.1% | 14 | 9.7 | 1.45× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $68.69 | 6.0% | 19 | 19.3 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $54.66 | 4.8% | 17 | 19.3 | 0.88× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $45.35 | 4.0% | 14 | 19.3 | 0.72× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $26.14 | 2.3% | 21 | 19.3 | 1.09× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 10.0% | $14.79 | 12.9% | 191 | 193.2 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 23.0% | $9.67 | 19.5% | 429 | 444.4 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 61.4% | $2.29 | 12.3% | 1,208 | 1186.9 | 1.02× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: grim)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $13.73 $1,140 83.04x 2026-11-10 04:17 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [Pumpinator](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Pumpinator) $13.73 $1,086 79.08x 2026-11-10 00:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $13.73 $1,005 73.18x 2026-11-08 02:19 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) [AssCat ZarrY](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/AssCat%20ZarrY) $13.73 $842 61.36x 2026-11-10 13:49 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) [SakuJhin](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SakuJhin) $13.73 $842 61.36x 2026-11-08 10:47 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $13.73 $749 54.54x 2026-11-09 20:43 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) [STINYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/STINYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY) $13.73 $609 44.36x 2026-11-08 10:48 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) [1ntenze](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/1ntenze) $13.73 $609 44.36x 2026-11-05 13:44 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=287)

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $13.73 $9.67 0.70x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $13.73 $9.67 0.70x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $13.73 $2.29 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $13.73 $2.29 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [so lucky](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/so%20lucky) $13.73 $2.29 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $13.73 $14.79 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $13.73 $68.69 5.00x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $13.73 $2.29 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $13.73 $2.29 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $13.73 $2.29 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $13.73 | 83.28% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.9% rare 0.0% classified 1.1% covert knife 1.5% Legendary 1.0% pink 33.0% restricted 61.4% best hit $1,140 (83.04x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.28 on average: an expected loss of $16.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt