---
title: "Desert Stone CS2 Case Collection on DaddySkins: odds & RTP"
description: "Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up. Figures from public feeds and chains."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/322
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Desert Stone CS2 Case Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/322)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Desert Stone CS2 Case Collection

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/322?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/322?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/322) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/322?window=all)

Price · $6.53

Advertised RTP · 83.26% · EV $5.44 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.44% · 2,938 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 76.09% ±22.86 400 openings

7 days · 84.07% ±9.23 2,456 openings

30 days · 83.44% ±8.44 2,938 openings

since tracking started · 83.44% ±8.44 2,938 openings

52.5% 76.0% 99.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/322?window=24h) | 400 | 76.09% ±22.9 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/322?window=7d) | 2,456 | 84.07% ±9.23 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/322) | 2,938 | 83.44% ±8.44 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/322?window=all) | 2,938 | 83.44% ±8.44 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,984 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $270 | 5.0% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $121 | 3.3% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.45× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $117 | 2.1% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.68× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $109 | 3.0% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.45× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $106 | 2.9% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $103 | 2.8% | 8 | 4.5 | 1.79× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $94.19 | 2.6% | 1 | 4.5 | 0.22× |
| [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $77.61 | 4.3% | 7 | 9.0 | 0.78× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $53.98 | 4.0% | 10 | 11.9 | 0.84× |
| [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $38.68 | 3.6% | 19 | 14.9 | 1.27× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $36.80 | 3.4% | 21 | 14.9 | 1.41× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $29.62 | 5.4% | 38 | 29.8 | 1.27× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $23.12 | 6.4% | 51 | 44.8 | 1.14× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $22.18 | 14.3% | 107 | 104.4 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $7.41 | 6.8% | 160 | 149.2 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.38 | 6.8% | 154 | 149.2 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $5.87 | 5.8% | 166 | 159.6 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $5.70 | 6.3% | 185 | 179.0 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $3.40 | 4.4% | 193 | 208.9 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-field-tested) | 13.0% | $2.58 | 6.2% | 382 | 387.9 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 50.0% | $0.07 | 0.6% | 1,468 | 1492.0 | 0.98× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: desert-bonanza)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=322)

[USP-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) [✪TRIF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AATRIF) $6.53 $3.40 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) [Kapitan Gówienow](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Kapitan%20G%C3%B3wienow) $6.53 $22.18 3.40x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-field-tested) [loens](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/loens) $6.53 $2.58 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Samy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Samy) $6.53 $0.07 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Mayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mayers) $6.53 $0.07 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-field-tested) [Cardano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Cardano) $6.53 $2.58 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [loens](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/loens) $6.53 $0.07 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [AT11](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/AT11) $6.53 $0.07 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-field-tested) [Zyaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Zyaa) $6.53 $2.58 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [❤Ave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9D%A4Ave) $6.53 $7.41 1.13x 2026-11-11 11:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.53 | 83.26% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 6.6% restricted 6.2% covert 0.3% #8847ff 0.3% mil spec 6.9% industrial 54.5% violet 5.3% Rare 7.0% milspec 13.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.26 on average: an expected loss of $16.74 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt