--- title: "Lava Stone CS2 Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lava Stone CS2 Case ($2.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 11 items with odds, observed 88.28% over 7,591 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/323 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Lava Stone CS2 Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/323) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Lava Stone CS2 Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/323?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/323?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/323) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/323?window=all) Price · $2.00 Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $1.67 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.28% · 7,591 openings, odds method Variance · 21.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.31% ±17.85 2,642 openings 7 days · 83.42% ±11.36 6,525 openings 30 days · 88.28% ±10.53 7,591 openings since tracking started · 88.28% ±10.53 7,591 openings 67.0% 85.5% 104.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/323?window=24h) | 2,642 | 85.31% ±17.9 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/323?window=7d) | 6,525 | 83.42% ±11.4 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/323) | 7,591 | 88.28% ±10.5 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/323?window=all) | 7,591 | 88.28% ±10.5 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,593 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,503 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $519 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $512 | 0.9% | 2 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $239 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $208 | 2.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $203 | 3.0% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $134 | 4.0% | 7 | 3.8 | 1.84× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $74.09 | 4.4% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.92× | | [XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $12.03 | 10.8% | 119 | 113.9 | 1.04× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $10.94 | 58.1% | 662 | 672.0 | 0.99× | | [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-minimal-wear) | 89.4% | $0.24 | 12.9% | 6,793 | 6791.0 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: lava-bonanza)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $2.00 $512 255.8x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [Tout dehors](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Tout%20dehors) $2.00 $512 255.8x 2026-11-03 12:33 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $2.00 $208 104.1x 2026-11-10 22:06 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [Pão de Queijo](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/P%C3%A3o%20de%20Queijo) $2.00 $208 104.1x 2026-11-06 14:50 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) [SpKsAxC casedrop.eu](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SpKsAxC%20casedrop.eu) $2.00 $203 101.3x 2026-11-07 07:45 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [it´s a beautiful day outside](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/it%C2%B4s%20a%20beautiful%20day%20outside) $2.00 $134 67.05x 2026-11-10 12:18 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [SaD](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SaD) $2.00 $134 67.05x 2026-11-10 04:28 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [逗逼](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E9%80%97%E9%80%BC) $2.00 $134 67.05x 2026-11-09 20:06 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [LeCoq](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/LeCoq) $2.00 $134 67.05x 2026-11-08 08:54 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [BooM:HeadShotcsgostep.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BooM%3AHeadShotcsgostep.com) $2.00 $134 67.05x 2026-11-03 20:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=323) [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-minimal-wear) [LEON](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/LEON) $2.00 $0.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) [SysteM](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SysteM) $2.00 $10.94 5.47x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $2.00 $0.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $2.00 $0.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $2.00 $0.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $2.00 $0.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $2.00 $0.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-minimal-wear) [so lucky](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/so%20lucky) $2.00 $0.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-minimal-wear) [store](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/store) $2.00 $0.24 0.12x 2026-11-11 16:11 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) [Dapper](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dapper) $2.00 $10.94 5.47x 2026-11-11 16:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.00 | 83.33% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% epic 0.0% Immortal 0.1% Legendary 1.5% classified 8.8% Rare 89.4% best hit $512 (255.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt