---
title: "Water stone case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Water stone ($75.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 33 items with odds, observed 66.13% over 843 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/325
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Water stone](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/325)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Water stone

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/325?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/325?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/325) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/325?window=all)

Price · $75.00

Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $62.49 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 66.13% · 843 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 45 openings · below min

7 days · 67.61% ±18.94 566 openings

30 days · 66.13% ±15.52 843 openings

since tracking started · 66.13% ±15.52 843 openings

-0.5% 67.0% 134.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 83.32% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (50.60% – 81.65%, 843 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/325?window=24h) | 45 | 66.63% ±67.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/325?window=7d) | 566 | 67.61% ±18.9 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/325) | 843 | 66.13% ±15.5 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/325?window=all) | 843 | 66.13% ±15.5 | −2.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 843 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,833 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $4,310 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $3,251 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-well-worn) | 1 in 4,000 | $2,773 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $2,638 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,848 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,487 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,398 | 1.8% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,240 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,128 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $521 | 1.7% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 435 | $494 | 1.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $464 | 1.9% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 357 | $433 | 1.9% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $409 | 2.0% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 294 | $401 | 2.2% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $361 | 2.3% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.48× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $352 | 2.5% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $205 | 2.6% | 4 | 6.7 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $199 | 2.5% | 5 | 6.7 | 0.74× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $189 | 3.0% | 3 | 8.4 | 0.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $141 | 3.2% | 9 | 11.8 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $140 | 3.4% | 6 | 12.6 | 0.47× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $124 | 4.0% | 22 | 16.9 | 1.30× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $121 | 3.9% | 11 | 16.9 | 0.65× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $99.21 | 4.8% | 21 | 25.3 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $78.89 | 5.0% | 36 | 33.7 | 1.07× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $71.13 | 5.7% | 38 | 42.2 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $47.11 | 6.8% | 82 | 75.9 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $46.99 | 7.1% | 81 | 80.1 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 10.0% | $36.66 | 5.9% | 89 | 84.3 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 15.0% | $23.48 | 5.6% | 134 | 126.4 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 32.1% | $11.51 | 5.9% | 286 | 270.3 | 1.06× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: water-bonanza)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) [L'Italiano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/L'Italiano) $75.00 $1,398 18.64x 2026-11-10 15:38 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) [Joekern](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Joekern) $75.00 $1,398 18.64x 2026-11-09 14:28 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=325)

[AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $75.00 $36.66 0.49x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) [Siyei](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Siyei) $75.00 $99.21 1.32x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) [Mhaepotsx ! :\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mhaepotsx%20!%20%3A*-1601602) $75.00 $11.51 0.15x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $75.00 $11.51 0.15x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) [Siyei](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Siyei) $75.00 $47.11 0.63x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

[AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) [Mhaepotsx ! :\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mhaepotsx%20!%20%3A*-1601602) $75.00 $124 1.65x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $75.00 $11.51 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $75.00 $11.51 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $75.00 $11.51 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $75.00 $11.51 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $75.00 | 83.32% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 24.7% extraordinary 0.3% restricted 16.6% covert knife 5.3% Mythical 0.3% classified 15.4% red 1.4% Ancient 4.0% Legendary 32.1% best hit $1,398 (18.64x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt