--- title: "Ammo case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ammo ($5.13) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.24% from 26 items with odds, observed 87.05% over 2,223 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/336 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Ammo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/336) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Ammo A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/336?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/336?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/336) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/336?window=all) Price · $5.13 Advertised RTP · 83.24% · EV $4.27 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.05% · 2,223 openings, odds method Variance · 6.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 77.97% ±31.95 243 openings 7 days · 86.05% ±11.49 1,879 openings 30 days · 87.05% ±10.56 2,223 openings since tracking started · 87.05% ±10.56 2,223 openings 45.5% 78.0% 110.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/336?window=24h) | 243 | 77.97% ±32.0 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/336?window=7d) | 1,879 | 86.05% ±11.5 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/336) | 2,223 | 87.05% ±10.6 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/336?window=all) | 2,223 | 87.05% ±10.6 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,225 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $443 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $419 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $133 | 1.2% | 4 | 0.9 | — | | [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $132 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $129 | 4.5% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.60× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 455 | $82.05 | 4.2% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.23× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $75.20 | 4.4% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.08× | | [P2000 \| Scorpion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-factory-new) | 1 in 323 | $72.26 | 5.2% | 5 | 6.9 | 0.72× | | [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 313 | $62.39 | 4.7% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.12× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $53.66 | 4.4% | 13 | 7.8 | 1.67× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 244 | $36.96 | 3.5% | 16 | 9.1 | 1.75× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 222 | $20.83 | 2.2% | 12 | 10.0 | 1.20× | | [AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $19.95 | 2.1% | 12 | 10.0 | 1.20× | | [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $19.27 | 2.3% | 12 | 11.1 | 1.08× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $18.15 | 2.1% | 5 | 11.1 | 0.45× | | [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $12.23 | 1.4% | 13 | 11.1 | 1.17× | | [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $11.20 | 1.3% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× | | [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $8.81 | 1.0% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $8.45 | 1.1% | 6 | 12.2 | 0.49× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $8.09 | 1.9% | 29 | 22.3 | 1.30× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $7.93 | 1.9% | 23 | 22.3 | 1.03× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $7.56 | 1.8% | 30 | 22.3 | 1.35× | | [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $7.04 | 2.5% | 31 | 33.4 | 0.93× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $4.12 | 2.9% | 59 | 66.8 | 0.88× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 10.0% | $3.83 | 9.0% | 220 | 222.5 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) | 76.4% | $1.63 | 29.2% | 1,693 | 1699.9 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: ammo)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=336) [M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) [pororo](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/pororo) $5.13 $1.63 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) [Baut1sta](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Baut1sta) $5.13 $1.63 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) [Zyaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Zyaa) $5.13 $4.12 0.80x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) [FoXxX](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/FoXxX) $5.13 $1.63 0.32x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) [默默](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E9%BB%98%E9%BB%98) $5.13 $4.12 0.80x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) [Elon Mumps](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Elon%20Mumps) $5.13 $1.63 0.32x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) [JoaK--](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/JoaK--) $5.13 $1.63 0.32x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) [Caro Pardiaco](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Caro%20Pardiaco) $5.13 $1.63 0.32x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) [Roy Mustang](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Roy%20Mustang) $5.13 $1.63 0.32x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) [FoXxX](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/FoXxX) $5.13 $1.63 0.32x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.13 | 83.24% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% restricted 11.9% industrial 0.1% Immortal 0.1% Ancient 0.6% classified 2.8% Legendary 1.9% Mythical 0.5% #d32ee6 1.0% violet 1.5% milspec 3.0% blue 76.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.24 on average: an expected loss of $16.76 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt