---
title: "Fire case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fire ($5.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 21 items with odds, observed 68.49% over 2,709 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/340
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Fire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/340)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Fire

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/340?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/340?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/340) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/340?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $4.17 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 68.49% · 2,709 openings, odds method

Variance · 59.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 159 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 94.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 457 openings · below min

7 days · 75.20% ±31.86 2,259 openings

30 days · 68.49% ±29.09 2,709 openings

since tracking started · 68.49% ±29.09 2,709 openings

21.0% 92.3% 163.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/340?window=24h) | 457 | 92.26% ±70.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/340?window=7d) | 2,259 | 75.20% ±31.9 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/340) | 2,709 | 68.49% ±29.1 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/340?window=all) | 2,709 | 68.49% ±29.1 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,714 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,020 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,745 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,101 | 2.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $713 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $689 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $571 | 5.5% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.84× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $366 | 5.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $277 | 4.7% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $238 | 4.6% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $153 | 3.7% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $144 | 3.5% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $141 | 3.4% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $139 | 3.3% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $112 | 2.7% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $68.89 | 3.3% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $50.50 | 3.6% | 5 | 8.1 | 0.61× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $22.97 | 2.8% | 15 | 13.6 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Airlock (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-airlock-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $13.01 | 2.2% | 13 | 19.0 | 0.68× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $8.55 | 7.2% | 92 | 95.0 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) | 37.1% | $2.15 | 19.1% | 999 | 1006.9 | 0.99× |
| [M249 \| System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) | 56.9% | $0.38 | 5.2% | 1,572 | 1543.5 | 1.02× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: fire)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [☜✯☞ Hyder ☜✯☞](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%98%9C%E2%9C%AF%E2%98%9E%20Hyder%20%E2%98%9C%E2%9C%AF%E2%98%9E) $5.00 $1,101 220.1x 2026-11-11 00:09 UTC

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) [我是铁华团团长奥尔加几颗子弹不要紧的](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E6%88%91%E6%98%AF%E9%93%81%E5%8D%8E%E5%9B%A2%E5%9B%A2%E9%95%BF%E5%A5%A5%E5%B0%94%E5%8A%A0%E5%87%A0%E9%A2%97%E5%AD%90%E5%BC%B9%E4%B8%8D%E8%A6%81%E7%B4%A7%E7%9A%84) $5.00 $713 142.7x 2026-11-07 23:17 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [NIK.SHINAEV](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/NIK.SHINAEV) $5.00 $571 114.3x 2026-11-09 20:35 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [knightsmithzer](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/knightsmithzer) $5.00 $571 114.3x 2026-11-07 14:41 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $5.00 $366 73.30x 2026-11-06 11:43 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $5.00 $277 55.43x 2026-11-09 11:25 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=340)

[M249 | System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $5.00 $0.38 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:32 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $5.00 $0.38 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:32 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) [m⁧⁧arths](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/m%E2%81%A7%E2%81%A7arths) $5.00 $0.38 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:32 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $5.00 $0.38 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:32 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $5.00 $0.38 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:32 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $5.00 $0.38 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:32 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $5.00 $0.38 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:29 UTC

[StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $5.00 $2.15 0.43x 2026-11-11 16:29 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $5.00 $0.38 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:29 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $5.00 $0.38 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.00 | 83.32% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.8% extraordinary 0.0% Covert 0.1% red 0.1% mil spec 57.2% restricted 0.5% classified 0.7% #d32ee6 3.5% milspec 37.1% best hit $1,101 (220.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt