--- title: "Mamma Mia Lich case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mamma Mia Lich ($150.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.34% from 26 items with odds, observed 88.12% over 512 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/341 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Mamma Mia Lich](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/341) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Mamma Mia Lich A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/341?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/341?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/341) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/341?window=all) Price · $150.00 Advertised RTP · 83.34% · EV $125.00 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.12% · 512 openings, odds method Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 46 openings · below min 7 days · 87.07% ±22.57 353 openings 30 days · 88.12% ±18.74 512 openings since tracking started · 88.12% ±18.74 512 openings -0.5% 58.0% 116.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/341?window=24h) | 46 | 53.44% ±62.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/341?window=7d) | 353 | 87.07% ±22.6 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/341) | 512 | 88.12% ±18.7 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/341?window=all) | 512 | 88.12% ±18.7 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 516 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $6,101 | 9.8% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,470 | 5.9% | 6 | 2.6 | 2.33× | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,109 | 8.9% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.16× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) | 1 in 53 | $597 | 9.1% | 13 | 9.8 | 1.33× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $596 | 9.1% | 15 | 9.8 | 1.53× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $239 | 5.7% | 16 | 15.5 | 1.03× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $235 | 5.6% | 16 | 15.5 | 1.03× | | [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $225 | 5.4% | 10 | 15.5 | 0.65× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $204 | 4.9% | 21 | 15.5 | 1.36× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $146 | 3.5% | 15 | 15.5 | 0.97× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $145 | 3.5% | 18 | 15.5 | 1.16× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $132 | 3.5% | 11 | 17.0 | 0.65× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $120 | 3.3% | 15 | 17.5 | 0.85× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $90.83 | 2.9% | 22 | 20.8 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $58.47 | 2.3% | 30 | 25.8 | 1.16× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $57.80 | 2.3% | 28 | 25.8 | 1.09× | | [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $55.90 | 2.2% | 28 | 25.8 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $54.61 | 2.2% | 27 | 25.8 | 1.05× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $54.00 | 2.2% | 24 | 25.8 | 0.93× | | [USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $48.86 | 2.0% | 28 | 25.8 | 1.09× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $45.89 | 1.8% | 14 | 25.8 | 0.54× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $30.17 | 1.4% | 35 | 31.0 | 1.13× | | [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $22.02 | 1.1% | 18 | 31.0 | 0.58× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $14.47 | 0.7% | 31 | 31.0 | 1.00× | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $10.18 | 0.5% | 29 | 31.0 | 0.94× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $5.79 | 0.3% | 40 | 34.9 | 1.15× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: mamma-mia-lich)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) [Zhong's](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Zhong's) $150 $1,470 9.80x 2026-11-09 06:31 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $150 $1,470 9.80x 2026-11-05 11:34 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $150 $1,470 9.80x 2026-11-05 11:31 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $150 $1,470 9.80x 2026-11-04 15:44 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $150 $1,470 9.80x 2026-11-04 09:15 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $150 $1,470 9.80x 2026-11-04 08:42 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) [wolvorot](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/wolvorot) $150 $1,109 7.39x 2026-11-08 20:09 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $150 $1,109 7.39x 2026-11-06 17:01 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) [✪-By"Mertcan"❤️](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AA-By%22Mertcan%22%E2%9D%A4%EF%B8%8F) $150 $1,109 7.39x 2026-11-06 16:16 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $150 $1,109 7.39x 2026-11-05 11:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=341) [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $150 $54.00 0.36x 2026-11-11 07:25 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) [. dir\`](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/.%20dir%60) $150 $5.79 0.04x 2026-11-11 07:25 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) [dlwlrma](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/dlwlrma) $150 $57.80 0.39x 2026-11-11 07:25 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) [\[HDM\]TDN](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BHDM%5DTDN) $150 $204 1.36x 2026-11-11 07:25 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) [soiboom](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/soiboom) $150 $14.47 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:25 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-field-tested) [Somebody](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Somebody) $150 $145 0.97x 2026-11-11 07:25 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $150 $14.47 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:13 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $150 $54.61 0.36x 2026-11-11 07:13 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $150 $58.47 0.39x 2026-11-11 07:13 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $150 $57.80 0.39x 2026-11-11 07:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $150 | 83.34% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 31.6% restricted 18.4% classified 13.8% covert knife 1.9% red 8.0% gold 3.0% extraordinary 3.0% Covert 3.3% mil spec 5.0% #d32ee6 12.0% best hit $1,470 (9.80x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.34 on average: an expected loss of $16.66 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt