---
title: "Final 2020 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Final 2020 ($28.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 21 items with odds, observed 74.60% over 819 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/344
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Final 2020](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/344)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Final 2020

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/344?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/344?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/344) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/344?window=all)

Price · $28.00

Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $23.33 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 74.60% · 819 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79 openings · below min

7 days · 75.69% ±10.49 687 openings

30 days · 74.60% ±9.61 819 openings

since tracking started · 74.60% ±9.61 819 openings

48.0% 79.5% 111.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/344?window=24h) | 79 | 79.63% ±30.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/344?window=7d) | 687 | 75.69% ±10.5 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/344) | 819 | 74.60% ±9.61 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/344?window=all) | 819 | 74.60% ±9.61 | −1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 819 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $364 | 7.8% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.49× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $239 | 5.1% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $187 | 4.0% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.49× |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $140 | 3.0% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $136 | 2.9% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.49× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $102 | 4.4% | 6 | 8.2 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $87.47 | 5.6% | 12 | 12.3 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $80.29 | 5.2% | 9 | 12.3 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $62.41 | 5.3% | 13 | 16.4 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $59.13 | 6.3% | 25 | 20.5 | 1.22× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $46.35 | 7.9% | 36 | 32.8 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $36.35 | 7.8% | 47 | 41.0 | 1.15× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $34.09 | 7.3% | 40 | 41.0 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $22.04 | 6.6% | 60 | 57.3 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $14.72 | 5.7% | 66 | 73.7 | 0.90× |
| [SSG 08 \| Red Stone (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $13.39 | 5.2% | 72 | 73.7 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 10.0% | $8.80 | 3.8% | 79 | 81.9 | 0.96× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 10.0% | $8.05 | 3.4% | 86 | 81.9 | 1.05× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.40 | 1.5% | 90 | 81.9 | 1.10× |
| [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $2.37 | 1.0% | 86 | 81.9 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.34 | 0.1% | 80 | 81.9 | 0.98× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: final-2020)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=344)

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $28.00 $0.34 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC

[MP7 | Neon Ply (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $28.00 $2.37 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $28.00 $14.72 0.53x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC

[Negev | dev\_texture (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $28.00 $3.40 0.12x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $28.00 $22.04 0.79x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC

[MP7 | Neon Ply (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-battle-scarred) [whitefox](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/whitefox) $28.00 $2.37 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $28.00 $8.05 0.29x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC

[Negev | dev\_texture (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $28.00 $3.40 0.12x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $28.00 $0.34 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) [whitefox](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/whitefox) $28.00 $8.05 0.29x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $28.00 | 83.33% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 6.0% red 0.5% #8847ff 0.5% restricted 30.5% gold 1.0% Ancient 1.5% covert 6.0% pink 5.0% common 9.0% #d32ee6 10.0% Legendary 10.0% violet 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt