--- title: "Jungle Stone case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Jungle Stone ($106.30) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.34% from 17 items with odds, observed 81.18% over 709 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/347 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Jungle Stone](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/347) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Jungle Stone A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/347?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/347?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/347) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/347?window=all) Price · $106.30 Advertised RTP · 83.34% · EV $88.59 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.18% · 709 openings, odds method Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 54 openings · below min 7 days · 80.07% ±20.71 429 openings 30 days · 81.18% ±16.11 709 openings since tracking started · 81.18% ±16.11 709 openings 23.0% 82.0% 141.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/347?window=24h) | 54 | 82.17% ±58.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/347?window=7d) | 429 | 80.07% ±20.7 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/347) | 709 | 81.18% ±16.1 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/347?window=all) | 709 | 81.18% ±16.1 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 709 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,184 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,470 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,891 | 4.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $1,848 | 4.2% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.82× | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $1,382 | 6.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $1,330 | 6.0% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,280 | 7.2% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.41× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $451 | 7.6% | 11 | 10.6 | 1.03× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $275 | 9.3% | 17 | 21.3 | 0.80× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $112 | 6.3% | 27 | 35.5 | 0.76× | | [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $98.44 | 7.8% | 51 | 49.6 | 1.03× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $90.18 | 7.1% | 41 | 49.6 | 0.83× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $80.28 | 7.2% | 59 | 56.7 | 1.04× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $72.39 | 8.2% | 62 | 70.9 | 0.87× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 12.0% | $71.76 | 9.7% | 90 | 85.1 | 1.06× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 18.0% | $6.96 | 1.4% | 145 | 127.6 | 1.14× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 26.6% | $3.34 | 1.0% | 191 | 188.6 | 1.01× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: jungle-bonanza)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [qo\_Op](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/qo_Op) $106 $1,891 17.79x 2026-11-03 12:37 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $106 $1,848 17.38x 2026-11-10 16:19 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $106 $1,848 17.38x 2026-11-07 14:10 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $106 $1,848 17.38x 2026-11-06 11:48 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $106 $1,848 17.38x 2026-11-05 10:19 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [JHON GAGOK :\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/JHON%20GAGOK%20%3A*-1619308) $106 $1,382 13.00x 2026-11-08 05:23 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $106 $1,382 13.00x 2026-11-04 11:31 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $106 $1,382 13.00x 2026-11-04 11:16 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) [Judista](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Judista) $106 $1,330 12.51x 2026-11-05 10:18 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $106 $1,330 12.51x 2026-11-04 08:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=347) [★ Gut Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $106 $80.28 0.76x 2026-11-11 00:19 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $106 $72.39 0.68x 2026-11-11 00:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $106 $71.76 0.68x 2026-11-11 00:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $106 $90.18 0.85x 2026-11-11 00:19 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $106 $112 1.05x 2026-11-11 00:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) [Code Tarkox](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Code%20Tarkox) $106 $71.76 0.68x 2026-11-11 00:19 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $106 $6.96 0.07x 2026-11-11 00:16 UTC [AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $106 $3.34 0.03x 2026-11-11 00:16 UTC [MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $106 $98.44 0.93x 2026-11-11 00:16 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $106 $6.96 0.07x 2026-11-11 00:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $106 | 83.34% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 46.8% restricted 26.7% epic 1.5% mil spec 7.0% Legendary 18.0% best hit $1,891 (17.79x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.34 on average: an expected loss of $16.66 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt