--- title: "Last Stone CS2 Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Last Stone CS2 Case ($88.92) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 15 items with odds, observed 80.17% over 469 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/348 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Last Stone CS2 Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/348) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Last Stone CS2 Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/348?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/348?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/348) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/348?window=all) Price · $88.92 Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $74.10 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.17% · 469 openings, odds method Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80.03% ±22.59 121 openings 7 days · 80.66% ±12.32 407 openings 30 days · 80.17% ±11.47 469 openings since tracking started · 80.17% ±11.47 469 openings 57.0% 80.3% 103.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/348?window=24h) | 121 | 80.03% ±22.6 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/348?window=7d) | 407 | 80.66% ±12.3 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/348) | 469 | 80.17% ±11.5 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/348?window=all) | 469 | 80.17% ±11.5 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 469 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,961 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,127 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,203 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,114 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,088 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $875 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $687 | 4.6% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.28× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $275 | 3.7% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.64× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $221 | 6.0% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $157 | 6.4% | 16 | 14.1 | 1.14× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $139 | 13.1% | 26 | 32.8 | 0.79× | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $136 | 12.9% | 31 | 32.8 | 0.94× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $90.18 | 12.2% | 53 | 46.9 | 1.13× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 25.0% | $71.36 | 24.1% | 137 | 117.3 | 1.17× | | [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) | 43.9% | $13.96 | 8.3% | 191 | 206.1 | 0.93× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: last-bonanza)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Boyka](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Boyka) $88.92 $1,203 13.53x 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) [Maldiko](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Maldiko) $88.92 $687 7.73x 2026-11-10 02:02 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) [clown20](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/clown20) $88.92 $687 7.73x 2026-11-09 16:30 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $88.92 $687 7.73x 2026-11-04 15:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=348) [Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $88.92 $13.96 0.16x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC [AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $88.92 $71.36 0.80x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC [Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $88.92 $13.96 0.16x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC [Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $88.92 $13.96 0.16x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $88.92 $90.18 1.01x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC [Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $88.92 $13.96 0.16x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC [Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $88.92 $13.96 0.16x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $88.92 $157 1.76x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC [AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $88.92 $71.36 0.80x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $88.92 $90.18 1.01x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $88.92 | 83.33% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 30.0% gold 0.1% classified 1.0% restricted 25.0% Mythical 43.9% best hit $1,203 (13.53x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt