--- title: "Snugtoes case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Snugtoes ($11.41) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.28% from 17 items with odds, observed 97.26% over 1,556 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/351 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Snugtoes](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/351) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Snugtoes A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/351?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/351?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/351) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/351?window=all) Price · $11.41 Advertised RTP · 83.28% · EV $9.50 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.26% · 1,556 openings, odds method Variance · 76.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 99 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 217 openings · below min 7 days · 81.81% ±47.48 1,298 openings 30 days · 97.26% ±43.37 1,556 openings since tracking started · 97.26% ±43.37 1,556 openings -0.5% 83.5% 167.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/351?window=24h) | 217 | 50.68% ±116.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/351?window=7d) | 1,298 | 81.81% ±47.5 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/351) | 1,556 | 97.26% ±43.4 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/351?window=all) | 1,556 | 97.26% ±43.4 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,556 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,564 | 9.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,337 | 4.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,122 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $739 | 5.4% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.75× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $571 | 6.0% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.93× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $550 | 5.8% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $536 | 5.6% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.93× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $252 | 2.6% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.29× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $194 | 2.0% | 5 | 1.6 | 3.21× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $172 | 1.8% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.93× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $120 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $96.43 | 1.5% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× | | [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 256 | $68.51 | 2.8% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.66× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $23.14 | 3.9% | 28 | 24.9 | 1.12× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $19.14 | 4.0% | 25 | 31.1 | 0.80× | | [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $11.29 | 5.9% | 85 | 77.8 | 1.09× | | [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) | 90.0% | $3.38 | 32.0% | 1,391 | 1400.4 | 0.99× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: snugtoes)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [Kick - Stolen](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Kick%20-%20Stolen) $11.41 $1,337 117.2x 2026-11-04 03:07 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $11.41 $1,122 98.35x 2026-11-04 08:00 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $11.41 $739 64.77x 2026-11-08 08:51 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [Forever](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Forever) $11.41 $739 64.77x 2026-11-06 17:24 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [Aeolian](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Aeolian) $11.41 $739 64.77x 2026-11-04 07:09 UTC [AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) [你有多少分够你这么送](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E4%BD%A0%E6%9C%89%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%E5%88%86%E5%A4%9F%E4%BD%A0%E8%BF%99%E4%B9%88%E9%80%81) $11.41 $571 50.09x 2026-11-09 21:37 UTC [AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $11.41 $571 50.09x 2026-11-08 19:14 UTC [AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) [telephone1410](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/telephone1410) $11.41 $571 50.09x 2026-11-04 01:36 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $11.41 $536 46.97x 2026-11-10 02:42 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [Arnold loot.farm](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Arnold%20loot.farm) $11.41 $536 46.97x 2026-11-09 22:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=351) [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $11.41 $3.38 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $11.41 $3.38 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $11.41 $3.38 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $11.41 $3.38 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $11.41 $3.38 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | High Roller (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) [12138](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/12138) $11.41 $11.29 0.99x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $11.41 $3.38 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $11.41 $3.38 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $11.41 $3.38 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $11.41 $3.38 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.41 | 83.28% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.0% classified 7.4% covert 0.7% gold 0.1% mil spec 0.1% rare 0.1% restricted 91.6% best hit $1,337 (117.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.28 on average: an expected loss of $16.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt