--- title: "Rainbow case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Rainbow ($170.70) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 7 items with odds, observed 93.95% over 404 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/353 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Rainbow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/353) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Rainbow A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/353?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/353?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/353) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/353?window=all) Price · $170.70 Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $142.25 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.95% · 404 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 81.17% ±21.12 179 openings 30 days · 93.95% ±14.06 404 openings since tracking started · 93.95% ±14.06 404 openings -0.5% 93.5% 187.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/353?window=24h) | 6 | 71.36% ±115.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/353?window=7d) | 179 | 81.17% ±21.1 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/353) | 404 | 93.95% ±14.1 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/353?window=all) | 404 | 93.95% ±14.1 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 404 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $2,252 | 15.8% | 8 | 4.0 | 1.98× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $646 | 4.5% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $404 | 8.7% | 9 | 12.4 | 0.73× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $355 | 12.5% | 11 | 20.3 | 0.54× | | [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 10.0% | $242 | 17.0% | 51 | 40.4 | 1.26× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 35.0% | $158 | 38.8% | 158 | 141.4 | 1.12× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 44.9% | $8.16 | 2.6% | 166 | 181.4 | 0.92× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: rainbow)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $171 $2,252 13.19x 2026-11-08 23:08 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $171 $2,252 13.19x 2026-11-04 15:51 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $171 $2,252 13.19x 2026-11-04 11:36 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $171 $2,252 13.19x 2026-11-04 11:03 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $171 $2,252 13.19x 2026-11-04 11:02 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $171 $2,252 13.19x 2026-11-04 08:46 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [NAS^-^](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/NAS%5E-%5E) $171 $2,252 13.19x 2026-11-03 07:46 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [KUPROY420](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/KUPROY420) $171 $2,252 13.19x 2026-11-03 07:46 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [L'Italiano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/L'Italiano) $171 $646 3.78x 2026-11-04 10:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=353) [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [〈†〉 PsychoKiller](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E3%80%88%E2%80%A0%E3%80%89%20PsychoKiller) $171 $8.16 0.05x 2026-11-11 07:19 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) [12yo proplayer](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/12yo%20proplayer) $171 $158 0.92x 2026-11-11 07:19 UTC [★ Bayonet | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $171 $242 1.42x 2026-11-11 07:19 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) [文明游戏](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E6%96%87%E6%98%8E%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F) $171 $158 0.92x 2026-11-11 07:19 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [Somebody](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Somebody) $171 $8.16 0.05x 2026-11-11 07:19 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) [. dir\`](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/.%20dir%60) $171 $158 0.92x 2026-11-11 07:19 UTC [★ Bayonet | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) [?Lairon?](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%3FLairon%3F) $171 $242 1.42x 2026-11-10 08:46 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [Tião](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Ti%C3%A3o) $171 $8.16 0.05x 2026-11-10 08:46 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [Mati](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mati) $171 $8.16 0.05x 2026-11-10 08:46 UTC [★ Bayonet | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $171 $242 1.42x 2026-11-10 08:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $171 | 83.33% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 2.0% covert 53.1% restricted 44.9% best hit $2,252 (13.19x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt