--- title: "Lucky Sticker case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lucky Sticker ($6.53) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 11 items with odds, observed 80.34% over 9,276 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/354 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Lucky Sticker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/354) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Lucky Sticker A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/354?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/354?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/354) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/354?window=all) Price · $6.53 Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $5.44 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.34% · 9,276 openings, odds method Variance · 309.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 667 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2,519 openings · below min 7 days · 77.23% ±39.43 7,646 openings 30 days · 80.34% ±35.80 9,276 openings since tracking started · 80.34% ±35.80 9,276 openings 11.0% 80.3% 149.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/354?window=24h) | 2,519 | 80.28% ±68.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/354?window=7d) | 7,646 | 77.23% ±39.4 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/354) | 9,276 | 80.34% ±35.8 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/354?window=all) | 9,276 | 80.34% ±35.8 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,304 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,600 | 17.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 2,500 | $2,000 | 14.7% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.34× | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,300 | 11.9% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.86× | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,156 | 10.6% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.43× | | [Sticker \| Fnatic \| Katowice 2014 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $900 | 8.3% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.86× | | [Sticker \| Tyloo (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tyloo-foil-boston-2018) | 1 in 2,000 | $850 | 7.8% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.86× | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Cologne 2014 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-cologne-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $310 | 5.7% | 11 | 9.3 | 1.18× | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2015 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2015) | 1 in 1,000 | $137 | 2.5% | 5 | 9.3 | 0.54× | | [Sticker \| Cloud9 (Holo) \| Boston 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-holo-boston-2018) | 1 in 1,000 | $110 | 2.0% | 9 | 9.3 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $27.00 | 0.5% | 9 | 9.3 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| Drug War Veteran sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drug-war-veteran) | 99.4% | $1.00 | 18.3% | 9,250 | 9243.5 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: lucky-sticker)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $6.53 $9,600 1,470x 2026-11-09 17:13 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $6.53 $2,000 306.3x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $6.53 $2,000 306.3x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $6.53 $2,000 306.3x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [\*AdashinO](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/*AdashinO-195816) $6.53 $2,000 306.3x 2026-11-05 00:29 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $6.53 $2,000 306.3x 2026-11-03 16:27 UTC [Sticker | Team Dignitas | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-katowice-2014) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $6.53 $1,300 199.1x 2026-11-09 22:28 UTC [Sticker | Team Dignitas | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-katowice-2014) [Vi](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Vi) $6.53 $1,300 199.1x 2026-11-06 23:32 UTC [Sticker | Team Dignitas | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-katowice-2014) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $6.53 $1,300 199.1x 2026-11-05 02:22 UTC [Sticker | Team Dignitas | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-katowice-2014) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $6.53 $1,300 199.1x 2026-11-04 13:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=354) [Sticker | Drug War Veteran sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drug-war-veteran) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $6.53 $1.00 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [Sticker | Drug War Veteran sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drug-war-veteran) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $6.53 $1.00 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [Sticker | Drug War Veteran sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drug-war-veteran) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $6.53 $1.00 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [Sticker | Drug War Veteran sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drug-war-veteran) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $6.53 $1.00 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [Sticker | Drug War Veteran sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drug-war-veteran) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $6.53 $1.00 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [Sticker | Drug War Veteran sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drug-war-veteran) [Forever](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Forever) $6.53 $1.00 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [Sticker | Drug War Veteran sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drug-war-veteran) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $6.53 $1.00 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Sticker | Drug War Veteran sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drug-war-veteran) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $6.53 $1.00 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Sticker | Drug War Veteran sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drug-war-veteran) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $6.53 $1.00 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Sticker | Drug War Veteran sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-drug-war-veteran) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $6.53 $1.00 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.53 | 83.32% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed high 0.2% contraband 0.0% High Grade 99.5% Legendary 0.1% violet 0.1% remarkable 0.1% best hit $9,600 (1,470x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt