--- title: "Lepajee case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lepajee ($31.65) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 12 items with odds, observed 82.72% over 790 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/355 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Lepajee](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/355) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Lepajee A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/355?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/355?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/355) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/355?window=all) Price · $31.65 Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $26.37 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.72% · 790 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 33 openings · below min 7 days · 84.77% ±11.82 591 openings 30 days · 82.72% ±10.22 790 openings since tracking started · 82.72% ±10.22 790 openings 58.0% 108.7% 159.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/355?window=24h) | 33 | 108.65% ±50.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/355?window=7d) | 591 | 84.77% ±11.8 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/355) | 790 | 82.72% ±10.2 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/355?window=all) | 790 | 82.72% ±10.2 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 790 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,028 | 3.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $227 | 5.6% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.36× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $222 | 5.9% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.36× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $139 | 5.3% | 5 | 7.9 | 0.63× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $116 | 8.8% | 13 | 15.8 | 0.82× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $68.92 | 7.8% | 27 | 23.7 | 1.14× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $59.28 | 11.2% | 48 | 39.5 | 1.22× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $52.82 | 12.0% | 55 | 47.4 | 1.16× | | [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 10.0% | $27.26 | 10.3% | 68 | 79.0 | 0.86× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Rose Iron (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-rose-iron-field-tested) | 14.0% | $16.89 | 9.0% | 98 | 110.6 | 0.89× | | [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 17.0% | $12.28 | 7.9% | 137 | 134.3 | 1.02× | | [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) | 40.6% | $7.95 | 12.2% | 329 | 320.3 | 1.03× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: lepajee)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $31.65 $1,028 32.47x 2026-11-05 00:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=355) [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) [Finding Match](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Finding%20Match) $31.65 $7.95 0.25x 2026-11-11 07:28 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) [dlwlrma](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/dlwlrma) $31.65 $7.95 0.25x 2026-11-11 07:28 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $31.65 $7.95 0.25x 2026-11-11 07:28 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) [Finding Match](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Finding%20Match) $31.65 $7.95 0.25x 2026-11-11 07:28 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-rose-iron-field-tested) [dlwlrma](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/dlwlrma) $31.65 $16.89 0.53x 2026-11-11 07:28 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $31.65 $52.82 1.67x 2026-11-11 07:28 UTC [SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) [Finding Match](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Finding%20Match) $31.65 $27.26 0.86x 2026-11-11 07:28 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-rose-iron-field-tested) [dlwlrma](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/dlwlrma) $31.65 $16.89 0.53x 2026-11-11 07:28 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-rose-iron-field-tested) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $31.65 $16.89 0.53x 2026-11-11 07:28 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) [Finding Match](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Finding%20Match) $31.65 $7.95 0.25x 2026-11-11 07:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $31.65 | 83.31% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 11.8% restricted 55.2% red 6.0% classified 27.0% best hit $1,028 (32.47x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt