--- title: "Nik case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nik case ($25.83) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.30% from 23 items with odds, observed 87.83% over 659 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/356 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Nik case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/356) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Nik case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/356?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/356?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/356) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/356?window=all) Price · $25.83 Advertised RTP · 83.30% · EV $21.52 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.83% · 659 openings, odds method Variance · 5.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 43 openings · below min 7 days · 94.94% ±20.15 511 openings 30 days · 87.83% ±17.74 659 openings since tracking started · 87.83% ±17.74 659 openings -0.5% 67.0% 134.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/356?window=24h) | 43 | 64.41% ±69.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/356?window=7d) | 511 | 94.94% ±20.2 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/356) | 659 | 87.83% ±17.7 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/356?window=all) | 659 | 87.83% ±17.7 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 662 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $1,967 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,811 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,389 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,043 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,009 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $967 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $748 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $468 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $317 | 2.2% | 3 | 1.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $203 | 1.9% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $153 | 2.5% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $141 | 2.6% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.13× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $106 | 3.0% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.76× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $76.62 | 5.3% | 11 | 9.9 | 1.11× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $68.06 | 4.7% | 8 | 9.9 | 0.81× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $57.69 | 5.4% | 11 | 13.2 | 0.83× | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $54.51 | 5.1% | 11 | 13.2 | 0.83× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $54.43 | 5.1% | 8 | 13.2 | 0.60× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $50.34 | 4.7% | 5 | 13.2 | 0.38× | | [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $21.65 | 9.1% | 49 | 59.6 | 0.82× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $15.51 | 10.8% | 116 | 99.3 | 1.17× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Airlock (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-airlock-well-worn) | 21.0% | $13.01 | 12.7% | 148 | 139.0 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 42.0% | $6.31 | 12.3% | 281 | 278.0 | 1.01× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: nik)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $25.83 $1,389 53.79x 2026-11-09 18:40 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [der\_lachsende\_larry](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/der_lachsende_larry) $25.83 $1,043 40.39x 2026-11-10 00:08 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $25.83 $748 28.98x 2026-11-04 17:04 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=356) [MP9 | Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) [W22](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/W22) $25.83 $21.65 0.84x 2026-11-11 06:13 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) [Gilbert](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Gilbert) $25.83 $15.51 0.60x 2026-11-11 06:13 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) [as21999](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/as21999) $25.83 $6.31 0.24x 2026-11-11 06:13 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) [♥ski♥mask♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%99%A5ski%E2%99%A5mask%E2%99%A5) $25.83 $15.51 0.60x 2026-11-11 06:13 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) [使你才能](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E4%BD%BF%E4%BD%A0%E6%89%8D%E8%83%BD) $25.83 $6.31 0.24x 2026-11-11 06:13 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) [W22](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/W22) $25.83 $15.51 0.60x 2026-11-11 06:13 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) [Gilbert](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Gilbert) $25.83 $6.31 0.24x 2026-11-11 06:13 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) [as21999](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/as21999) $25.83 $6.31 0.24x 2026-11-11 06:13 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) [♥ski♥mask♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%99%A5ski%E2%99%A5mask%E2%99%A5) $25.83 $6.31 0.24x 2026-11-11 06:13 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) [使你才能](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E4%BD%BF%E4%BD%A0%E6%89%8D%E8%83%BD) $25.83 $6.31 0.24x 2026-11-11 06:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $25.83 | 83.30% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.0% gold 0.1% classified 38.5% Covert 0.3% extraordinary 2.1% #d32ee6 9.0% restricted 42.0% best hit $1,389 (53.79x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.30 on average: an expected loss of $16.70 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt