--- title: "Sparkles Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sparkles Case ($19.71) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 18 items with odds, observed 118.07% over 1,095 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/359 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Sparkles Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/359) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Sparkles Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/359?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/359?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/359) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/359?window=all) Price · $19.71 Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $16.42 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 118.07% · 1,095 openings, odds method Variance · 29.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 77.15% ±92.62 130 openings 7 days · 124.07% ±33.84 974 openings 30 days · 118.07% ±31.91 1,095 openings since tracking started · 118.07% ±31.91 1,095 openings -0.5% 85.0% 170.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 83.31% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (86.16% – 149.99%, 1,095 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/359?window=24h) | 130 | 77.15% ±92.6 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/359?window=7d) | 974 | 124.07% ±33.8 | +2.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/359) | 1,095 | 118.07% ±31.9 | +2.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/359?window=all) | 1,095 | 118.07% ±31.9 | +2.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,111 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,551 | 5.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,841 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,385 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,564 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $725 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $580 | 3.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $260 | 7.9% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.26× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $182 | 11.1% | 22 | 11.1 | 1.98× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $134 | 8.2% | 11 | 11.1 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $82.11 | 5.0% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× | | [Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Foil) \| London 2018 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-foil-london-2018) | 1 in 100 | $60.00 | 3.7% | 16 | 11.1 | 1.44× | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $47.58 | 2.9% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $45.93 | 5.6% | 19 | 22.2 | 0.86× | | [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $33.73 | 6.2% | 29 | 33.3 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 20.0% | $12.67 | 15.4% | 192 | 222.2 | 0.86× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 21.1% | $6.29 | 8.1% | 241 | 234.4 | 1.03× | | [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 22.0% | $5.76 | 7.7% | 231 | 244.4 | 0.95× | | [Sticker \| Ninja Defuse sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninja-defuse) | 26.2% | $1.00 | 1.6% | 321 | 291.1 | 1.10× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: sparkles)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $19.71 $8,551 433.9x 2026-11-09 21:44 UTC [MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-field-tested) [bigcatcat](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/bigcatcat) $19.71 $580 29.42x 2026-11-03 04:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=359) [Sticker | Ninja Defuse sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninja-defuse) [SixBee](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SixBee) $19.71 $1.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) [Zjh.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Zjh.) $19.71 $33.73 1.71x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC [Sticker | Ninja Defuse sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninja-defuse) [KUPROY420](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/KUPROY420) $19.71 $1.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) [SixBee](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SixBee) $19.71 $12.67 0.64x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC [SG 553 | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-battle-scarred) [Zjh.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Zjh.) $19.71 $5.76 0.29x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC [Sticker | Ninja Defuse sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninja-defuse) [KUPROY420](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/KUPROY420) $19.71 $1.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC [AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) [SixBee](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SixBee) $19.71 $6.29 0.32x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC [AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) [Zjh.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Zjh.) $19.71 $82.11 4.17x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC [AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) [KUPROY420](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/KUPROY420) $19.71 $6.29 0.32x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) [SixBee](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SixBee) $19.71 $134 6.82x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $19.71 | 83.31% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.0% classified 4.0% restricted 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% covert 1.1% Classified 0.1% extraordinary 0.5% red 1.0% exotic 1.0% Mythical 24.1% mil spec 20.0% pink 22.0% Rare 26.2% best hit $8,551 (433.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt