--- title: "Grinder case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Grinder ($37.89) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 18 items with odds, observed 71.18% over 484 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/361 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Grinder](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/361) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Grinder A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/361?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/361?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/361) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/361?window=all) Price · $37.89 Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $31.57 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.18% · 484 openings, odds method Variance · 9.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 46 openings · below min 7 days · 70.75% ±29.54 436 openings 30 days · 71.18% ±28.03 484 openings since tracking started · 71.18% ±28.03 484 openings -0.5% 74.5% 149.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/361?window=24h) | 46 | 57.73% ±90.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/361?window=7d) | 436 | 70.75% ±29.5 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/361) | 484 | 71.18% ±28.0 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/361?window=all) | 484 | 71.18% ±28.0 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 496 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,388 | 7.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,805 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,175 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,057 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,028 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $807 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $633 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $286 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $183 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $157 | 5.0% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $136 | 4.3% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $131 | 4.2% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.81× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $91.18 | 14.4% | 33 | 24.8 | 1.33× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 10.0% | $60.09 | 19.0% | 44 | 49.6 | 0.89× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $34.90 | 11.1% | 44 | 49.6 | 0.89× | | [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) | 12.0% | $12.99 | 4.9% | 62 | 59.5 | 1.04× | | [XM1014 \| Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) | 26.0% | $5.38 | 4.4% | 144 | 129.0 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 33.1% | $2.90 | 3.0% | 156 | 164.2 | 0.95× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: grinder)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $37.89 $2,388 63.03x 2026-11-08 06:26 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=361) [StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $37.89 $34.90 0.92x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $37.89 $2.90 0.08x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $37.89 $2.90 0.08x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $37.89 $91.18 2.41x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC [XM1014 | Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $37.89 $5.38 0.14x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC [AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $37.89 $60.09 1.59x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC [Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $37.89 $12.99 0.34x 2026-11-11 06:50 UTC [Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $37.89 $12.99 0.34x 2026-11-11 06:50 UTC [Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $37.89 $12.99 0.34x 2026-11-11 06:50 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-field-tested) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $37.89 $136 3.58x 2026-11-11 06:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $37.89 | 83.33% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.7% gold 0.1% classified 10.1% restricted 10.0% Mythical 12.0% pink 26.0% Restricted 33.1% best hit $2,388 (63.03x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt