---
title: "Hell's Fire case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Hell's Fire ($70.33) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 20 items with odds, observed 88.12% over 2,698 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/366
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Hell's Fire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/366)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Hell's Fire

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/366?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/366?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/366) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/366?window=all)

Price · $70.33

Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $58.60 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.12% · 2,698 openings, odds method

Variance · 21.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 38 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 102.40% ±46.67 371 openings

7 days · 82.89% ±17.92 2,517 openings

30 days · 88.12% ±17.31 2,698 openings

since tracking started · 88.12% ±17.31 2,698 openings

55.0% 102.3% 149.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/366?window=24h) | 371 | 102.40% ±46.7 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/366?window=7d) | 2,517 | 82.89% ±17.9 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/366) | 2,698 | 88.12% ±17.3 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/366?window=all) | 2,698 | 88.12% ±17.3 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,700 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $8,136 | 6.9% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $7,377 | 6.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $5,120 | 4.4% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.48× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,938 | 5.0% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,556 | 4.4% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,293 | 3.9% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,271 | 2.2% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,203 | 2.1% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $724 | 6.2% | 16 | 13.5 | 1.19× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $716 | 6.1% | 13 | 13.5 | 0.96× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $470 | 8.0% | 24 | 27.0 | 0.89× |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $437 | 7.5% | 30 | 27.0 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $106 | 9.1% | 153 | 135.0 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 10.0% | $65.00 | 11.1% | 293 | 270.0 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 10.0% | $49.30 | 8.4% | 280 | 270.0 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 10.0% | $18.97 | 3.2% | 245 | 270.0 | 0.91× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 10.3% | $16.01 | 2.8% | 289 | 279.4 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 17.0% | $4.31 | 1.3% | 482 | 459.0 | 1.05× |
| [P90 \| Randy Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-minimal-wear) | 17.0% | $2.60 | 0.8% | 434 | 459.0 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-zeus-x27-tosai-well-worn) | 17.0% | $1.70 | 0.5% | 420 | 459.0 | 0.92× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: hells-fire)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $70.33 $8,136 115.7x 2026-11-10 21:46 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [1850432](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/1850432) $70.33 $7,377 104.9x 2026-11-08 13:46 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $70.33 $5,120 72.80x 2026-11-10 00:56 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [Billy The Kid](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Billy%20The%20Kid) $70.33 $5,120 72.80x 2026-11-04 10:38 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $70.33 $2,938 41.78x 2026-11-10 03:51 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [重案组之虎曹达华](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E9%87%8D%E6%A1%88%E7%BB%84%E4%B9%8B%E8%99%8E%E6%9B%B9%E8%BE%BE%E5%8D%8E) $70.33 $2,938 41.78x 2026-11-06 08:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [1850432](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/1850432) $70.33 $2,938 41.78x 2026-11-04 12:13 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $70.33 $2,938 41.78x 2026-11-04 01:55 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $70.33 $2,556 36.34x 2026-11-10 04:50 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $70.33 $2,556 36.34x 2026-11-10 03:44 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=366)

[Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) [Negritow 2](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Negritow%202) $70.33 $16.01 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) [as21999](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/as21999) $70.33 $49.30 0.70x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) [Lemon](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Lemon) $70.33 $65.00 0.92x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-field-tested) [adrian10127](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/adrian10127) $70.33 $106 1.51x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[P90 | Randy Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-minimal-wear) [Negritow 2](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Negritow%202) $70.33 $2.60 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) [as21999](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/as21999) $70.33 $4.31 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) [Lemon](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Lemon) $70.33 $4.31 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) [adrian10127](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/adrian10127) $70.33 $65.00 0.92x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) [Negritow 2](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Negritow%202) $70.33 $16.01 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) [as21999](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/as21999) $70.33 $16.01 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $70.33 | 83.33% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.1% covert 10.3% #ffd700 0.1% extraordinary 1.1% sunny 1.1% restricted 1.0% classified 25.4% Classified 10.0% Mythical 17.0% violet 17.0% #8847ff 17.0% best hit $8,136 (115.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt