--- title: "Cold Turkey case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cold Turkey ($7.49) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.26% from 12 items with odds, observed 76.12% over 1,887 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/370 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Cold Turkey](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/370) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Cold Turkey A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/370?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/370?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/370) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/370?window=all) Price · $7.49 Advertised RTP · 83.26% · EV $6.24 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.12% · 1,887 openings, odds method Variance · 9.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 65.60% ±35.76 294 openings 7 days · 76.62% ±15.39 1,588 openings 30 days · 76.12% ±14.12 1,887 openings since tracking started · 76.12% ±14.12 1,887 openings 29.0% 65.5% 102.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/370?window=24h) | 294 | 65.60% ±35.8 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/370?window=7d) | 1,588 | 76.62% ±15.4 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/370) | 1,887 | 76.12% ±14.1 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/370?window=all) | 1,887 | 76.12% ±14.1 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,893 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $766 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $500 | 5.6% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-arboreal-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $90.13 | 5.1% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.60× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $64.99 | 5.2% | 5 | 9.5 | 0.53× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $51.22 | 8.2% | 23 | 18.9 | 1.22× | | [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $26.08 | 10.5% | 54 | 47.3 | 1.14× | | [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $14.17 | 11.4% | 91 | 94.7 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) | 12.0% | $7.47 | 14.4% | 250 | 227.2 | 1.10× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 13.0% | $7.06 | 14.7% | 235 | 246.1 | 0.95× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-field-tested) | 15.0% | $4.22 | 10.2% | 280 | 283.9 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $1.62 | 6.5% | 461 | 473.3 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-windblown-field-tested) | 25.5% | $0.54 | 2.2% | 489 | 483.3 | 1.01× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: cold-turkey)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) [ZeX0r | SkinUp.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/ZeX0r%20%7C%20SkinUp.gg) $7.49 $500 66.77x 2026-11-06 21:48 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=370) [MP7 | Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-field-tested) [九月落雨画秋凉](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E4%B9%9D%E6%9C%88%E8%90%BD%E9%9B%A8%E7%94%BB%E7%A7%8B%E5%87%89) $7.49 $4.22 0.56x 2026-11-11 16:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Windblown (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-windblown-field-tested) [SacredSouL](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SacredSouL) $7.49 $0.54 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:35 UTC [AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) [Hurricane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Hurricane) $7.49 $1.62 0.22x 2026-11-11 16:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Windblown (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-windblown-field-tested) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $7.49 $0.54 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Windblown (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-windblown-field-tested) [nikibonnn](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/nikibonnn) $7.49 $0.54 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:35 UTC [AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) [SysteM](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SysteM) $7.49 $7.47 1.00x 2026-11-11 16:35 UTC [AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $7.49 $1.62 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Windblown (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-windblown-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $7.49 $0.54 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $7.49 $1.62 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $7.49 $1.62 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.49 | 83.26% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.4% covert 0.1% gold 0.5% Ancient 1.0% mil spec 2.5% pink 5.0% restricted 40.0% Rare 25.0% Mil Spec 25.5% best hit $500 (66.77x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.26 on average: an expected loss of $16.74 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt