--- title: "Big Daddy's Santa case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Big Daddy's Santa ($354.42) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 15 items with odds, observed 93.60% over 190 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/372 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Big Daddy's Santa](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/372) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Big Daddy's Santa A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/372?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/372?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/372) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/372?window=all) Price · $354.42 Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $295.35 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.60% · 190 openings, odds method Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 97.31% ±34.21 140 openings 30 days · 93.60% ±29.36 190 openings since tracking started · 93.60% ±29.36 190 openings 23.0% 97.5% 172.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/372?window=24h) | 30 | 97.40% ±73.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/372?window=7d) | 140 | 97.31% ±34.2 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/372) | 190 | 93.60% ±29.4 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/372?window=all) | 190 | 93.60% ±29.4 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 206 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $7,380 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $6,437 | 6.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $5,561 | 9.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $3,043 | 7.7% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $2,364 | 8.0% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.94× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $1,434 | 7.3% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.62× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,271 | 8.6% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.46× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $849 | 8.6% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.97× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $831 | 8.4% | 8 | 6.2 | 1.29× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $623 | 11.2% | 15 | 10.9 | 1.37× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 12.5% | $276 | 11.7% | 27 | 25.8 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $64.04 | 3.3% | 30 | 30.9 | 0.97× | | [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-factory-new) | 15.0% | $53.25 | 2.7% | 32 | 30.9 | 1.04× | | [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 15.0% | $38.13 | 1.9% | 30 | 30.9 | 0.97× | | [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 25.0% | $10.24 | 0.9% | 42 | 51.5 | 0.82× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: big-daddys-santa)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [Judista](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Judista) $354 $6,437 18.16x 2026-11-05 10:32 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $354 $2,364 6.67x 2026-11-10 23:54 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) [九月落雨画秋凉](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E4%B9%9D%E6%9C%88%E8%90%BD%E9%9B%A8%E7%94%BB%E7%A7%8B%E5%87%89) $354 $2,364 6.67x 2026-11-06 06:22 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $354 $2,364 6.67x 2026-11-05 10:32 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $354 $2,364 6.67x 2026-11-04 09:46 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $354 $1,434 4.05x 2026-11-10 05:28 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $354 $1,434 4.05x 2026-11-09 22:55 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $354 $1,434 4.05x 2026-11-06 11:49 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $354 $1,434 4.05x 2026-11-04 11:23 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) [L'Italiano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/L'Italiano) $354 $1,434 4.05x 2026-11-04 10:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=372) [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $354 $1,271 3.59x 2026-11-11 07:13 UTC [M4A4 | Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $354 $38.13 0.11x 2026-11-11 07:13 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $354 $623 1.76x 2026-11-11 07:13 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $354 $623 1.76x 2026-11-11 07:13 UTC [M4A4 | Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $354 $38.13 0.11x 2026-11-11 07:13 UTC [Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-factory-new) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $354 $53.25 0.15x 2026-11-11 07:13 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $354 $2,364 6.67x 2026-11-10 23:54 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $354 $276 0.78x 2026-11-10 23:54 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $354 $276 0.78x 2026-11-10 23:54 UTC [MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $354 $10.24 0.03x 2026-11-10 23:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $354 | 83.33% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 14.2% gold 0.3% sunny 5.5% classified 0.8% extraordinary 1.0% #ffd700 8.3% red 15.0% #8847ff 15.0% uncommon 15.0% pink 25.0% best hit $6,437 (18.16x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt