--- title: "5% Case Hardened Knife case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% Case Hardened Knife ($19.30) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 82.87% from 10 items with odds, observed 74.47% over 1,311 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/376 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [5% Case Hardened Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/376) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · 5% Case Hardened Knife A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/376?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/376?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/376) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/376?window=all) Price · $19.30 Advertised RTP · 82.87% · EV $15.99 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.47% · 1,311 openings, odds method Variance · 20.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 59 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 119 openings · below min 7 days · 89.93% ±27.56 1,020 openings 30 days · 74.47% ±24.31 1,311 openings since tracking started · 74.47% ±24.31 1,311 openings 49.5% 141.0% 232.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/376?window=24h) | 119 | 151.14% ±80.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/376?window=7d) | 1,020 | 89.93% ±27.6 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/376) | 1,311 | 74.47% ±24.3 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/376?window=all) | 1,311 | 74.47% ±24.3 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,313 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,106 | 6.9% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,079 | 13.5% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.52× | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $752 | 14.1% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.76× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $394 | 12.3% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.07× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $367 | 13.8% | 5 | 7.9 | 0.63× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $228 | 16.5% | 12 | 15.2 | 0.79× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $125 | 16.7% | 20 | 28.1 | 0.71× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 25.0% | $3.36 | 5.3% | 339 | 328.3 | 1.03× | | [FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-well-worn) | 30.0% | $0.40 | 0.8% | 406 | 393.9 | 1.03× | | [Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-minimal-wear) | 40.0% | $0.10 | 0.3% | 516 | 525.2 | 0.98× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: 5-case-hardened-knife)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $19.30 $1,106 57.29x 2026-11-11 00:00 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [FLOYDEKS™\\m/](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/FLOYDEKS%E2%84%A2%5Cm%2F) $19.30 $1,079 55.93x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $19.30 $1,079 55.93x 2026-11-09 22:53 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $19.30 $1,079 55.93x 2026-11-07 14:49 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $19.30 $1,079 55.93x 2026-11-04 17:55 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $19.30 $752 38.94x 2026-11-07 09:39 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-battle-scarred) [SHIBAL KIMCHI](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SHIBAL%20KIMCHI) $19.30 $752 38.94x 2026-11-05 00:47 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-battle-scarred) [TheRealWraith | csgopoints.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/TheRealWraith%20%7C%20csgopoints.com) $19.30 $752 38.94x 2026-11-04 19:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=376) [FAMAS | Decommissioned (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $19.30 $0.40 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [FAMAS | Decommissioned (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $19.30 $0.40 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $19.30 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $19.30 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $19.30 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [FAMAS | Decommissioned (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-well-worn) [LamaKicker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/LamaKicker) $19.30 $0.40 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [FAMAS | Decommissioned (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $19.30 $0.40 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $19.30 $3.36 0.17x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $19.30 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [FAMAS | Decommissioned (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $19.30 $0.40 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $19.30 | 82.87% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.5% gold 0.8% knifes 0.5% Immortal 1.2% restricted 25.0% mil spec 30.0% #87c7ff 40.0% best hit $1,106 (57.29x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 82.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $82.87 on average: an expected loss of $17.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt