--- title: "VDN case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "VDN case ($88.51) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 15 items with odds, observed 79.07% over 297 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/377 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [VDN case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/377) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · VDN case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/377?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/377?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/377) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/377?window=all) Price · $88.51 Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $73.75 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.07% · 297 openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 48 openings · below min 7 days · 76.44% ±16.55 251 openings 30 days · 79.07% ±15.22 297 openings since tracking started · 79.07% ±15.22 297 openings 35.0% 73.5% 112.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/377?window=24h) | 48 | 73.46% ±37.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/377?window=7d) | 251 | 76.44% ±16.6 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/377) | 297 | 79.07% ±15.2 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/377?window=all) | 297 | 79.07% ±15.2 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 309 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,665 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $774 | 5.2% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.29× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $466 | 4.7% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.29× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $386 | 5.2% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $374 | 7.9% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.42× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $212 | 8.6% | 10 | 9.3 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $141 | 9.5% | 14 | 15.5 | 0.91× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $124 | 10.1% | 15 | 18.5 | 0.81× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $119 | 11.3% | 27 | 21.6 | 1.25× | | [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $77.98 | 9.5% | 38 | 27.8 | 1.37× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 10.0% | $68.89 | 9.3% | 39 | 30.9 | 1.26× | | [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 13.0% | $48.68 | 8.6% | 29 | 40.2 | 0.72× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 14.0% | $20.00 | 3.8% | 52 | 43.3 | 1.20× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 14.0% | $8.13 | 1.5% | 38 | 43.3 | 0.88× | | [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.72 | 0.1% | 38 | 46.4 | 0.82× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: vdn-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-field-tested) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $88.51 $774 8.74x 2026-11-08 17:10 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $88.51 $774 8.74x 2026-11-07 14:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=377) [AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $88.51 $68.89 0.78x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC [AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $88.51 $77.98 0.88x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC [P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $88.51 $0.72 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC [P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $88.51 $0.72 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $88.51 $20.00 0.23x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC [AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) [Boyka](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Boyka) $88.51 $77.98 0.88x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $88.51 $141 1.59x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $88.51 $124 1.40x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $88.51 $8.13 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $88.51 $8.13 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $88.51 | 83.33% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #eb4b4b 0.2% extraordinary 0.5% covert 24.8% red 12.6% classified 10.0% Ancient 9.0% restricted 14.0% mil spec 14.0% Mythical 15.0% best hit $774 (8.74x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt