---
title: "Broken Heart case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Broken Heart ($67.50) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 22 items with odds, observed 74.98% over 423 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/379
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Broken Heart](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/379)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Broken Heart

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/379?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/379?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/379) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/379?window=all)

Price · $67.50

Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $56.25 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 74.98% · 423 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 38 openings · below min

7 days · 72.77% ±20.21 319 openings

30 days · 74.98% ±17.55 423 openings

since tracking started · 74.98% ±17.55 423 openings

28.5% 87.8% 147.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/379?window=24h) | 38 | 87.92% ±58.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/379?window=7d) | 319 | 72.77% ±20.2 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/379) | 423 | 74.98% ±17.5 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/379?window=all) | 423 | 74.98% ±17.5 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 438 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,763 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $985 | 3.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $826 | 4.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $528 | 4.7% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.37× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $527 | 4.7% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $483 | 6.0% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $214 | 5.7% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $183 | 4.9% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.07× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $158 | 4.2% | 10 | 6.6 | 1.52× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $153 | 4.1% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $139 | 4.9% | 10 | 8.8 | 1.14× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $107 | 5.7% | 11 | 13.1 | 0.84× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $84.34 | 4.5% | 14 | 13.1 | 1.07× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $82.50 | 4.4% | 8 | 13.1 | 0.61× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $74.91 | 6.7% | 23 | 21.9 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $65.29 | 11.6% | 32 | 43.8 | 0.73× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 10.0% | $44.93 | 8.0% | 51 | 43.8 | 1.16× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $17.04 | 3.0% | 57 | 43.8 | 1.30× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 10.0% | $7.46 | 1.3% | 44 | 43.8 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.46 | 0.6% | 44 | 43.8 | 1.00× |
| [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 12.6% | $2.40 | 0.5% | 50 | 55.2 | 0.91× |
| [Charm \| Hot Hands charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-hands) | 13.0% | $1.25 | 0.3% | 54 | 56.9 | 0.95× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: broken-heart)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $67.50 $985 14.59x 2026-11-10 15:32 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [干](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%B9%B2) $67.50 $826 12.24x 2026-11-03 04:49 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) [啊邱](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%95%8A%E9%82%B1) $67.50 $528 7.82x 2026-11-11 06:28 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) [猫](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%8C%AB) $67.50 $528 7.82x 2026-11-09 23:42 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) [bigcatcat](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/bigcatcat) $67.50 $528 7.82x 2026-11-03 04:49 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [?Lairon?](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%3FLairon%3F) $67.50 $527 7.81x 2026-11-05 11:07 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $67.50 $527 7.81x 2026-11-04 05:09 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=379)

[MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $67.50 $17.04 0.25x 2026-11-11 06:46 UTC

[Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $67.50 $3.46 0.05x 2026-11-11 06:46 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $67.50 $84.34 1.25x 2026-11-11 06:46 UTC

[Charm | Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $67.50 $2.40 0.04x 2026-11-11 06:46 UTC

[Charm | Hot Hands charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-hands) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $67.50 $1.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 06:46 UTC

[Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $67.50 $3.46 0.05x 2026-11-11 06:46 UTC

[Charm | Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) [请加新号：U2YO\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E8%AF%B7%E5%8A%A0%E6%96%B0%E5%8F%B7%EF%BC%9AU2YO*-1631720) $67.50 $2.40 0.04x 2026-11-11 06:29 UTC

[Charm | Hot Hands charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-hands) [♥ski♥mask♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%99%A5ski%E2%99%A5mask%E2%99%A5) $67.50 $1.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 06:29 UTC

[Charm | Hot Hands charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-hands) [凝龙](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%87%9D%E9%BE%99) $67.50 $1.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 06:29 UTC

[Charm | Hot Hands charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-hands) [啊邱](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%95%8A%E9%82%B1) $67.50 $1.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 06:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $67.50 | 83.33% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.2% epic 0.2% covert 18.3% extraordinary 0.7% rare 5.0% #d32ce6 10.0% red 10.0% Mythical 10.0% classified 10.0% mil spec 10.0% uncommon 12.6% #8847ff 13.0% best hit $985 (14.59x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt