---
title: "Gunfight case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Gunfight ($65.75) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 41 items with odds, observed 84.80% over 931 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/383
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Gunfight](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/383)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Gunfight

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/383?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/383?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/383) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/383?window=all)

Price · $65.75

Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $54.78 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.80% · 931 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 72.87% ±27.25 159 openings

7 days · 86.60% ±13.51 647 openings

30 days · 84.80% ±11.26 931 openings

since tracking started · 84.80% ±11.26 931 openings

45.0% 73.0% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/383?window=24h) | 159 | 72.87% ±27.3 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/383?window=7d) | 647 | 86.60% ±13.5 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/383) | 931 | 84.80% ±11.3 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/383?window=all) | 931 | 84.80% ±11.3 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 973 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,327 | 3.6% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.37× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,267 | 3.5% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $940 | 3.4% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $732 | 3.3% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.23× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $590 | 3.2% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $535 | 2.9% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $499 | 2.7% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $372 | 2.4% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $337 | 2.5% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.28× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $309 | 2.8% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.23× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $290 | 3.2% | 10 | 5.8 | 1.71× |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $271 | 3.0% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $218 | 2.8% | 8 | 6.8 | 1.17× |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $215 | 3.1% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $201 | 3.1% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $197 | 3.2% | 7 | 8.8 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $153 | 3.1% | 12 | 10.7 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $122 | 2.7% | 10 | 11.7 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $100 | 2.4% | 6 | 12.6 | 0.47× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $97.89 | 2.3% | 16 | 12.6 | 1.26× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $82.89 | 2.1% | 17 | 13.6 | 1.25× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $78.25 | 2.0% | 14 | 13.6 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $75.77 | 2.8% | 22 | 19.5 | 1.13× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $73.30 | 2.7% | 15 | 19.5 | 0.77× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $66.82 | 2.4% | 25 | 19.5 | 1.28× |
| [P250 \| Digital Architect (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $65.84 | 2.4% | 13 | 19.5 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $64.46 | 2.4% | 19 | 19.5 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $51.59 | 2.4% | 25 | 24.3 | 1.03× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $50.79 | 2.3% | 20 | 24.3 | 0.82× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $40.66 | 3.0% | 42 | 38.9 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $31.12 | 3.4% | 54 | 57.9 | 0.93× |
| [MAC-10 \| Graven (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $27.09 | 3.0% | 63 | 58.4 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $21.09 | 2.3% | 68 | 58.4 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $18.14 | 2.0% | 69 | 58.4 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $10.23 | 1.1% | 61 | 58.4 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $9.90 | 1.1% | 53 | 58.4 | 0.91× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $8.16 | 0.9% | 76 | 58.4 | 1.30× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $7.51 | 0.8% | 49 | 58.4 | 0.84× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $6.02 | 0.7% | 40 | 58.4 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $4.90 | 0.5% | 51 | 58.4 | 0.87× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $4.82 | 0.5% | 56 | 58.4 | 0.96× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: gunfight)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $65.75 $1,327 20.18x 2026-11-05 14:05 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $65.75 $1,327 20.18x 2026-11-05 14:05 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [adrian10127](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/adrian10127) $65.75 $1,267 19.27x 2026-11-08 03:36 UTC

[AK-47 | Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $65.75 $940 14.29x 2026-11-04 03:00 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $65.75 $732 11.14x 2026-11-10 15:15 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [Mono Romero](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mono%20Romero) $65.75 $732 11.14x 2026-11-08 16:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $65.75 $732 11.14x 2026-11-07 00:15 UTC

[AUG | Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) [Mono Romero](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mono%20Romero) $65.75 $590 8.98x 2026-11-08 16:40 UTC

[AUG | Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $65.75 $590 8.98x 2026-11-05 13:58 UTC

[AUG | Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $65.75 $590 8.98x 2026-11-05 13:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=383)

[AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) [menglin](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/menglin) $65.75 $4.90 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) [Miki](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Miki) $65.75 $66.82 1.02x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[MAC-10 | Graven (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-field-tested) [pemprayskrim](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/pemprayskrim) $65.75 $27.09 0.41x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) [menglin](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/menglin) $65.75 $51.59 0.78x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) [Miki](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Miki) $65.75 $51.59 0.78x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) [pemprayskrim](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/pemprayskrim) $65.75 $290 4.41x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) [menglin](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/menglin) $65.75 $66.82 1.02x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) [Miki](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Miki) $65.75 $9.90 0.15x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[MAC-10 | Graven (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-field-tested) [pemprayskrim](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/pemprayskrim) $65.75 $27.09 0.41x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) [menglin](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/menglin) $65.75 $7.51 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $65.75 | 83.31% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.1% classified 21.9% covert 21.9% #d32ee6 12.8% red 2.7% restricted 26.0% pink 2.5% mil spec 5.9% violet 6.0% best hit $1,327 (20.18x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt