--- title: "Junior DD case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Junior DD ($42.24) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 8 items with odds, observed 95.06% over 655 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/385 rendered: 2026-11-11T20:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Junior DD](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/385) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Junior DD A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/385?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/385?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/385) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/385?window=all) Price · $42.24 Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $35.20 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.06% · 655 openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 96.23% ±11.33 526 openings 30 days · 95.06% ±10.16 655 openings since tracking started · 95.06% ±10.16 655 openings -0.5% 53.8% 108.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 83.33% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.91% – 105.22%, 655 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/385?window=24h) | 30 | 46.27% ±47.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/385?window=7d) | 526 | 96.23% ±11.3 | +2.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/385) | 655 | 95.06% ±10.2 | +2.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/385?window=all) | 655 | 95.06% ±10.2 | +2.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 655 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $267 | 22.7% | 19 | 19.6 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $172 | 14.7% | 30 | 19.6 | 1.53× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $103 | 11.7% | 36 | 26.2 | 1.37× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $90.02 | 10.2% | 32 | 26.2 | 1.22× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $80.49 | 11.4% | 36 | 32.8 | 1.10× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 14.0% | $40.05 | 15.9% | 92 | 91.7 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) | 28.0% | $13.59 | 10.8% | 174 | 183.4 | 0.95× | | [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 39.0% | $2.21 | 2.4% | 236 | 255.5 | 0.92× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: junior-dd)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=385) [Tec-9 | Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-battle-scarred) [Silver Queen](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Silver%20Queen) $42.24 $2.21 0.05x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC [M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) [\*RubixRL YT/TTV](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/*RubixRL%20YT%2FTTV-524400) $42.24 $13.59 0.32x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC [Tec-9 | Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-battle-scarred) [Silver Queen](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Silver%20Queen) $42.24 $2.21 0.05x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC [AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [\*RubixRL YT/TTV](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/*RubixRL%20YT%2FTTV-524400) $42.24 $80.49 1.91x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) [Silver Queen](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Silver%20Queen) $42.24 $40.05 0.95x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC [Tec-9 | Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-battle-scarred) [\*RubixRL YT/TTV](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/*RubixRL%20YT%2FTTV-524400) $42.24 $2.21 0.05x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) [Silver Queen](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Silver%20Queen) $42.24 $40.05 0.95x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC [M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [\*RubixRL YT/TTV](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/*RubixRL%20YT%2FTTV-524400) $42.24 $103 2.44x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC [Tec-9 | Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-battle-scarred) [Silver Queen](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Silver%20Queen) $42.24 $2.21 0.05x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) [\*RubixRL YT/TTV](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/*RubixRL%20YT%2FTTV-524400) $42.24 $13.59 0.32x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $42.24 | 83.33% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 15.0% gold 4.0% Covert 14.0% Rare 28.0% Mil Spec 39.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt