--- title: "Secret Exodia case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Secret Exodia ($16.57) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.30% from 18 items with odds, observed 85.30% over 1,048 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/387 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Secret Exodia](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/387) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Secret Exodia A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/387?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/387?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/387) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/387?window=all) Price · $16.57 Advertised RTP · 83.30% · EV $13.80 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.30% · 1,048 openings, odds method Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 58 openings · below min 7 days · 87.29% ±11.69 794 openings 30 days · 85.30% ±10.18 1,048 openings since tracking started · 85.30% ±10.18 1,048 openings 64.0% 108.0% 152.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/387?window=24h) | 58 | 108.15% ±43.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/387?window=7d) | 794 | 87.29% ±11.7 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/387) | 1,048 | 85.30% ±10.2 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/387?window=all) | 1,048 | 85.30% ±10.2 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,048 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $575 | 2.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $494 | 3.6% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $318 | 3.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $152 | 2.8% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $144 | 2.6% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.53× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $86.73 | 3.1% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.34× | | [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $78.14 | 2.8% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.95× | | [AUG \| Sand Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $77.05 | 2.8% | 10 | 5.2 | 1.91× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $70.27 | 2.5% | 8 | 5.2 | 1.53× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $49.83 | 2.7% | 7 | 7.9 | 0.89× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $48.66 | 3.5% | 11 | 10.5 | 1.05× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $45.88 | 3.3% | 8 | 10.5 | 0.76× | | [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $45.31 | 3.3% | 7 | 10.5 | 0.67× | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $32.39 | 2.9% | 18 | 13.1 | 1.37× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $19.34 | 2.8% | 23 | 21.0 | 1.10× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Djinn (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-djinn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $14.55 | 5.3% | 70 | 52.4 | 1.34× | | [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 10.2% | $12.20 | 9.0% | 105 | 106.9 | 0.98× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 75.0% | $7.61 | 41.3% | 762 | 786.0 | 0.97× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: secret-exodia)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $16.57 $575 34.68x 2026-11-08 00:38 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=387) [P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) [☢ João #NTC](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%98%A2%20Jo%C3%A3o%20%23NTC) $16.57 $12.20 0.74x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC [MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) [TutoriaLs2](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/TutoriaLs2) $16.57 $7.61 0.46x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC [MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) [arrakul](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/arrakul) $16.57 $7.61 0.46x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC [MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) [☢Cash☢](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%98%A2Cash%E2%98%A2) $16.57 $7.61 0.46x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC [MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) [Peter Inkompetent](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Peter%20Inkompetent) $16.57 $7.61 0.46x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) [TutoriaLs2](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/TutoriaLs2) $16.57 $318 19.19x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC [MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) [New Paradigma](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/New%20Paradigma) $16.57 $7.61 0.46x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC [MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) [Holy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Holy) $16.57 $7.61 0.46x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC [P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) [Grud](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Grud) $16.57 $12.20 0.74x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC [MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) [いつき](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E3%81%84%E3%81%A4%E3%81%8D) $16.57 $7.61 0.46x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $16.57 | 83.30% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.5% extraordinary 0.6% restricted 1.3% Ancient 1.3% red 1.0% Classified 1.3% classified 92.2% best hit $575 (34.68x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.30 on average: an expected loss of $16.70 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt