---
title: "Wonder Gem Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Wonder Gem Case ($8.29) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 15 items with odds, observed 80.85% over 1,457 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/394
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Wonder Gem Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/394)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Wonder Gem Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/394?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/394?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/394) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/394?window=all)

Price · $8.29

Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $6.91 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.85% · 1,457 openings, odds method

Variance · 11.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 94.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 46.24% ±61.43 117 openings

7 days · 79.92% ±19.30 1,185 openings

30 days · 80.85% ±17.41 1,457 openings

since tracking started · 80.85% ±17.41 1,457 openings

-0.5% 54.0% 108.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/394?window=24h) | 117 | 46.24% ±61.4 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/394?window=7d) | 1,185 | 79.92% ±19.3 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/394) | 1,457 | 80.85% ±17.4 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/394?window=all) | 1,457 | 80.85% ±17.4 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,484 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,904 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,398 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $1,133 | 2.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $228 | 3.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $205 | 4.5% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $188 | 5.4% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $183 | 5.3% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $141 | 6.1% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $92.45 | 4.7% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× |
| [Howl Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/howl-pin) | 1 in 200 | $67.00 | 4.8% | 11 | 7.4 | 1.48× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $63.85 | 4.6% | 3 | 7.4 | 0.40× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $34.09 | 4.9% | 17 | 14.8 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $14.43 | 4.2% | 27 | 29.7 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 34.7% | $4.46 | 22.4% | 494 | 514.6 | 0.96× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 60.0% | $2.87 | 24.9% | 918 | 890.4 | 1.03× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: wonder-gem)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) [A](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/A) $8.29 $1,133 136.6x 2026-11-06 14:04 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=394)

[XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) [Grud](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Grud) $8.29 $2.87 0.35x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC

[XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) [Ronin](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Ronin) $8.29 $2.87 0.35x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC

[XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) [HARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HARD) $8.29 $2.87 0.35x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) [Garri Gudiηi 四](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Garri%20Gudi%CE%B7i%20%E5%9B%9B) $8.29 $4.46 0.54x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) [Kamikaze](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Kamikaze) $8.29 $4.46 0.54x 2026-11-11 10:13 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) [porschello944](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/porschello944) $8.29 $4.46 0.54x 2026-11-11 10:13 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) [dama de paus](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/dama%20de%20paus) $8.29 $4.46 0.54x 2026-11-11 10:13 UTC

[XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) [Somebody](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Somebody) $8.29 $2.87 0.35x 2026-11-11 07:22 UTC

[XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $8.29 $2.87 0.35x 2026-11-11 07:22 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) [Somebody](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Somebody) $8.29 $4.46 0.54x 2026-11-11 07:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $8.29 | 83.32% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.8% restricted 36.7% classified 0.2% covert 1.0% #ffd700 0.3% pink 1.0% violet 60.0% best hit $1,133 (136.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt