--- title: "CS2 Countdown Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "CS2 Countdown Case ($7.87) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.27% from 38 items with odds, observed 89.37% over 1,946 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/395 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [CS2 Countdown Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/395) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · CS2 Countdown Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/395?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/395?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/395) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/395?window=all) Price · $7.87 Advertised RTP · 83.27% · EV $6.55 from 38 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.37% · 1,946 openings, odds method Variance · 12.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 28 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 101.92% ±34.24 415 openings 7 days · 87.60% ±16.86 1,711 openings 30 days · 89.37% ±15.81 1,946 openings since tracking started · 89.37% ±15.81 1,946 openings 67.0% 102.0% 137.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/395?window=24h) | 415 | 101.92% ±34.2 | +1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/395?window=7d) | 1,711 | 87.60% ±16.9 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/395) | 1,946 | 89.37% ±15.8 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/395?window=all) | 1,946 | 89.37% ±15.8 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,954 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,211 | 3.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $651 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $350 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $315 | 1.9% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 2,222 | $287 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $266 | 2.0% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $246 | 1.9% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,818 | $223 | 1.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $184 | 2.0% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.46× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $163 | 2.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $138 | 2.1% | 5 | 2.0 | 2.56× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $131 | 2.0% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.54× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $112 | 1.7% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.05× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $96.69 | 1.5% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.54× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $90.33 | 1.4% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 800 | $86.53 | 1.7% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.23× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 800 | $82.43 | 1.6% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.23× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 800 | $80.53 | 1.5% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $72.75 | 2.2% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.28× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $56.05 | 4.3% | 10 | 9.8 | 1.02× | | [P250 \| Digital Architect (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $51.37 | 3.9% | 14 | 9.8 | 1.43× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $36.80 | 2.8% | 4 | 9.8 | 0.41× | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $32.59 | 2.5% | 13 | 9.8 | 1.33× | | [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $29.10 | 6.7% | 31 | 29.3 | 1.06× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $24.89 | 5.7% | 34 | 29.3 | 1.16× | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $17.31 | 4.0% | 27 | 29.3 | 0.92× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $14.07 | 6.4% | 47 | 58.6 | 0.80× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $10.54 | 8.0% | 91 | 97.7 | 0.93× | | [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $6.83 | 5.2% | 89 | 97.7 | 0.91× | | [MP5-SD \| Bamboo Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.31 | 4.1% | 91 | 97.7 | 0.93× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.02 | 2.3% | 110 | 97.7 | 1.13× | | [P250 \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.90 | 2.3% | 156 | 156.3 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $1.61 | 2.0% | 151 | 156.3 | 0.97× | | [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.62 | 0.8% | 139 | 156.3 | 0.89× | | [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.55 | 0.7% | 183 | 156.3 | 1.17× | | [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.30 | 0.4% | 161 | 156.3 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $0.22 | 0.4% | 229 | 234.5 | 0.98× | | [P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-lifted-spirits-battle-scarred) | 16.9% | $0.13 | 0.3% | 338 | 331.0 | 1.02× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: countdown)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | The Coalition (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $7.87 $1,211 153.9x 2026-11-10 21:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=395) [AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) [24 / 7 - Stoned](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/24%20%2F%207%20-%20Stoned) $7.87 $3.02 0.38x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-lifted-spirits-battle-scarred) [Pinante®](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Pinante%C2%AE) $7.87 $0.13 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-field-tested) [Anastazja](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Anastazja) $7.87 $5.31 0.67x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) [s1mple](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/s1mple) $7.87 $0.62 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) [Hardwds13](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Hardwds13) $7.87 $6.83 0.87x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) [HAOVAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HAOVAN) $7.87 $6.83 0.87x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) [24 / 7 - Stoned](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/24%20%2F%207%20-%20Stoned) $7.87 $0.22 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) [Pinante®](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Pinante%C2%AE) $7.87 $6.83 0.87x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-field-tested) [Anastazja](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Anastazja) $7.87 $5.31 0.67x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) [s1mple](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/s1mple) $7.87 $0.30 0.04x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.87 | 83.27% | 38 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #eb4b4b 0.0% red 0.0% Mythical 0.0% classified 5.5% covert 1.0% industrial 12.0% restricted 8.1% extraordinary 0.5% #ffd700 0.1% Covert 0.1% Ancient 0.1% #8847ff 0.5% violet 9.5% pink 6.5% consumer 10.0% Rare 13.0% milspec 24.9% blue 8.0% best hit $1,211 (153.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.27 on average: an expected loss of $16.73 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt