--- title: "Savage case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Savage ($30.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 10 items with odds, observed 77.76% over 976 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/396 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Savage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/396) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Savage A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/396?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/396?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/396) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/396?window=all) Price · $30.00 Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $25.00 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.76% · 976 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 17 openings · below min 7 days · 76.60% ±8.57 809 openings 30 days · 77.76% ±7.81 976 openings since tracking started · 77.76% ±7.81 976 openings 6.5% 66.3% 126.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/396?window=24h) | 17 | 66.09% ±59.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/396?window=7d) | 809 | 76.60% ±8.57 | −1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/396) | 976 | 77.76% ±7.81 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/396?window=all) | 976 | 77.76% ±7.81 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 976 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $234 | 18.7% | 13 | 19.5 | 0.67× | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $100 | 8.0% | 13 | 19.5 | 0.67× | | [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $90.83 | 7.3% | 22 | 19.5 | 1.13× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $58.97 | 4.7% | 23 | 19.5 | 1.18× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $49.93 | 4.0% | 18 | 19.5 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 17.3% | $43.68 | 30.3% | 166 | 169.1 | 0.98× | | [P90 \| Sunset Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-field-tested) | 18.0% | $19.17 | 13.8% | 196 | 175.7 | 1.12× | | [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) | 18.0% | $15.49 | 11.2% | 170 | 175.7 | 0.97× | | [Nova \| Koi (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-field-tested) | 18.0% | $2.62 | 1.9% | 187 | 175.7 | 1.06× | | [P90 \| Ash Wood (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ash-wood-factory-new) | 18.7% | $0.26 | 0.2% | 168 | 182.2 | 0.92× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: savage)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=396) [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $30.00 $43.68 1.46x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [P90 | Ash Wood (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ash-wood-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $30.00 $0.26 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $30.00 $15.49 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [Nova | Koi (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $30.00 $2.62 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [Nova | Koi (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $30.00 $2.62 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) [kevinlowroller](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/kevinlowroller) $30.00 $43.68 1.46x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) [Somebody](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Somebody) $30.00 $43.68 1.46x 2026-11-11 07:48 UTC [P90 | Sunset Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-field-tested) [007](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/007) $30.00 $19.17 0.64x 2026-11-11 07:48 UTC [Nova | Koi (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-field-tested) [✪ zer0^v^](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AA%20zer0%5Ev%5E) $30.00 $2.62 0.09x 2026-11-11 07:48 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) [\[CRP\] GeNy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BCRP%5D%20GeNy) $30.00 $43.68 1.46x 2026-11-11 07:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $30.00 | 83.33% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.0% red 2.0% classified 2.0% industrial 35.3% mil spec 18.0% restricted 18.0% Uncommon 18.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt