--- title: "10% Weapons case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% Weapons ($27.56) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 28 items with odds, observed 81.97% over 1,441 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/398 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [10% Weapons](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/398) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · 10% Weapons A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/398?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/398?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/398) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/398?window=all) Price · $27.56 Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $22.96 from 28 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.97% · 1,441 openings, odds method Variance · 7.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 60.10% ±37.38 206 openings 7 days · 79.30% ±15.83 1,149 openings 30 days · 81.97% ±14.13 1,441 openings since tracking started · 81.97% ±14.13 1,441 openings 22.0% 60.0% 98.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/398?window=24h) | 206 | 60.10% ±37.4 | −1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/398?window=7d) | 1,149 | 79.30% ±15.8 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/398) | 1,441 | 81.97% ±14.1 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/398?window=all) | 1,441 | 81.97% ±14.1 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,441 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $3,910 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,860 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,333 | $1,712 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $1,538 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,387 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $856 | 1.9% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $780 | 2.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,176 | $693 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $671 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $664 | 2.9% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.78× | | [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $595 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $582 | 2.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $493 | 2.1% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.08× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $473 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $279 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $272 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $212 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $205 | 0.9% | 6 | 1.4 | 4.16× | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $145 | 3.1% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $124 | 2.7% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.97× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $119 | 2.6% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $102 | 2.2% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $85.76 | 2.8% | 7 | 10.8 | 0.65× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $75.15 | 2.5% | 7 | 10.8 | 0.65× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $69.12 | 3.0% | 13 | 14.4 | 0.90× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $42.15 | 1.8% | 13 | 14.4 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $30.84 | 11.1% | 104 | 118.9 | 0.87× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 85.0% | $10.23 | 37.9% | 1,244 | 1224.8 | 1.02× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: 10-weapons)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [Evil Genius](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Evil%20Genius) $27.56 $1,538 55.80x 2026-11-08 04:54 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $27.56 $856 31.05x 2026-11-04 17:35 UTC [M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-factory-new) [BuDdEr.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BuDdEr.) $27.56 $780 28.28x 2026-11-06 06:10 UTC [M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-minimal-wear) [Hydr0](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Hydr0) $27.56 $664 24.10x 2026-11-09 15:14 UTC [M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-minimal-wear) [Alex Esposito](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Alex%20Esposito) $27.56 $664 24.10x 2026-11-07 05:20 UTC [M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $27.56 $664 24.10x 2026-11-05 08:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-minimal-wear) [c1MpLe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/c1MpLe) $27.56 $664 24.10x 2026-11-04 02:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=398) [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) [Сосиска](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%D0%A1%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0) $27.56 $10.23 0.37x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) [pemprayskrim](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/pemprayskrim) $27.56 $10.23 0.37x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) [✵?.?.?.?.✵](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%B5%3F.%3F.%3F.%3F.%E2%9C%B5) $27.56 $10.23 0.37x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) [Сосиска](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%D0%A1%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0) $27.56 $102 3.69x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) [pemprayskrim](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/pemprayskrim) $27.56 $10.23 0.37x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) [✵?.?.?.?.✵](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%B5%3F.%3F.%3F.%3F.%E2%9C%B5) $27.56 $30.84 1.12x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) [Сосиска](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%D0%A1%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0) $27.56 $10.23 0.37x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) [pemprayskrim](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/pemprayskrim) $27.56 $10.23 0.37x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) [✵?.?.?.?.✵](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%B5%3F.%3F.%3F.%3F.%E2%9C%B5) $27.56 $10.23 0.37x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) [Сосиска](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%D0%A1%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0) $27.56 $10.23 0.37x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $27.56 | 83.32% | 28 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 10.0% covert 3.7% restricted 0.7% #d32ee6 0.1% covert knife 0.5% pink 85.0% best hit $1,538 (55.80x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt