---
title: "Premium Neo case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Premium Neo ($18.40) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 131 items with odds, observed 80.35% over 1,185 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/399
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Premium Neo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/399)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Premium Neo

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/399?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/399?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/399) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/399?window=all)

Price · $18.40

Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $15.33 from 131 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.35% · 1,185 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 42 openings · below min

7 days · 80.57% ±13.05 1,082 openings

30 days · 80.35% ±12.47 1,185 openings

since tracking started · 80.35% ±12.47 1,185 openings

-0.5% 63.5% 127.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/399?window=24h) | 42 | 60.40% ±66.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/399?window=7d) | 1,082 | 80.57% ±13.0 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/399) | 1,185 | 80.35% ±12.5 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/399?window=all) | 1,185 | 80.35% ±12.5 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 131 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,185 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,768 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,759 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,669 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,570 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,494 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,416 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,319 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,163 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $997 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $963 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $950 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $894 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $813 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $766 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $749 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $745 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $717 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $714 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $708 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $693 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $661 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $656 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $652 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $646 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $645 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $614 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $590 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $582 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $572 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $569 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $567 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $553 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $536 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $527 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $525 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $523 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $518 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $504 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $503 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $499 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $472 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $469 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $443 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $426 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $417 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $407 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $396 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $372 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $367 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $364 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $360 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $355 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $353 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $297 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $292 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $288 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $286 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $271 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $256 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $252 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $246 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $244 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $239 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $232 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $218 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $209 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $204 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $203 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $195 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $188 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $183 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $180 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $176 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $172 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $155 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $153 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $150 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $143 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $142 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $131 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $129 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $127 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $117 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $116 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $114 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $112 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $107 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-well-worn) | 1 in 9,091 | $106 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $105 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $89.77 | 2.9% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $87.47 | 2.9% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.84× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $84.65 | 2.8% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $82.43 | 2.7% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Battle-Scarred) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-arboreal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $80.00 | 2.6% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.18× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $77.44 | 2.5% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $76.31 | 2.5% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $75.05 | 2.4% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $70.36 | 2.3% | 14 | 5.9 | 2.36× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $64.24 | 2.1% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $63.56 | 2.1% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $59.13 | 1.9% | 1 | 5.9 | 0.17× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $54.16 | 1.8% | 12 | 5.9 | 2.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $51.85 | 1.7% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.84× |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $51.58 | 1.7% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-well-worn) | 1 in 192 | $50.14 | 1.7% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $49.44 | 3.2% | 9 | 11.8 | 0.76× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $47.87 | 3.1% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $46.11 | 3.0% | 8 | 11.8 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $35.19 | 2.3% | 9 | 11.8 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $32.49 | 2.1% | 13 | 11.8 | 1.10× |
| [Nova \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $28.38 | 1.9% | 6 | 11.8 | 0.51× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $24.39 | 1.6% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $17.54 | 1.5% | 13 | 16.0 | 0.81× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $15.64 | 2.1% | 30 | 24.9 | 1.21× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $13.49 | 2.6% | 36 | 35.5 | 1.01× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $11.63 | 2.3% | 40 | 35.5 | 1.13× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $9.59 | 3.1% | 57 | 59.2 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $8.83 | 2.9% | 53 | 59.2 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $8.55 | 2.8% | 50 | 59.2 | 0.84× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $8.14 | 2.7% | 60 | 59.2 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.47 | 2.4% | 66 | 59.2 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $7.16 | 2.3% | 63 | 59.2 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.86 | 1.9% | 63 | 59.2 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.31 | 1.4% | 64 | 59.2 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.90 | 1.3% | 56 | 59.2 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.02 | 1.0% | 69 | 59.2 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $2.32 | 0.8% | 49 | 59.2 | 0.83× |
| [P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.71 | 0.6% | 44 | 59.2 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.46 | 0.5% | 70 | 59.2 | 1.18× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $1.18 | 0.4% | 76 | 59.2 | 1.28× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.89 | 0.3% | 55 | 59.2 | 0.93× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: premium-neo)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $18.40 $1,570 85.33x 2026-11-09 23:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=399)

[AWP | Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $18.40 $0.89 0.05x 2026-11-11 02:14 UTC

[USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $18.40 $7.16 0.39x 2026-11-11 02:14 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $18.40 $3.02 0.16x 2026-11-11 02:14 UTC

[USP-S | Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-field-tested) [xxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/xxx) $18.40 $3.90 0.21x 2026-11-11 02:14 UTC

[AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $18.40 $5.86 0.32x 2026-11-11 02:14 UTC

[XM1014 | Ziggy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $18.40 $1.18 0.06x 2026-11-11 02:14 UTC

[AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $18.40 $5.86 0.32x 2026-11-10 19:58 UTC

[SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $18.40 $11.63 0.63x 2026-11-10 19:58 UTC

[SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $18.40 $8.14 0.44x 2026-11-10 19:58 UTC

[Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $18.40 $51.58 2.80x 2026-11-10 19:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $18.40 | 83.31% | 131 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.3% classified 15.1% #d32ee6 0.0% restricted 23.9% pink 0.0% mil spec 17.1% extraordinary 0.0% red 0.0% Ancient 1.0% covert knife 0.5% Extraordinary 0.5% Legendary 8.5% #8847ff 8.5% Classified 0.5% Mythical 5.0% Rare 5.0% violet 5.0% #4b69ff 5.0% best hit $1,570 (85.33x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt