---
title: "Infection case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Infection ($6.30) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.28% from 22 items with odds, observed 79.45% over 1,950 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/400
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Infection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/400)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Infection

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/400?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/400?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/400) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/400?window=all)

Price · $6.30

Advertised RTP · 83.28% · EV $5.25 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.45% · 1,950 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 41 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 72.28% ±38.26 257 openings

7 days · 78.91% ±15.11 1,647 openings

30 days · 79.45% ±13.89 1,950 openings

since tracking started · 79.45% ±13.89 1,950 openings

33.5% 72.3% 111.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/400?window=24h) | 257 | 72.28% ±38.3 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/400?window=7d) | 1,647 | 78.91% ±15.1 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/400) | 1,950 | 79.45% ±13.9 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/400?window=all) | 1,950 | 79.45% ±13.9 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,957 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $330 | 3.1% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $201 | 3.8% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $196 | 4.5% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.70× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Minimal Wear) gloves · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-minimal-wear) | 1 in 714 | $188 | 5.0% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $167 | 4.8% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.70× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $122 | 4.7% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.02× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $99.40 | 4.7% | 1 | 4.9 | 0.20× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $99.26 | 4.7% | 8 | 4.9 | 1.64× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $84.00 | 4.8% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.02× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $78.78 | 6.0% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $68.92 | 6.6% | 10 | 9.8 | 1.02× |
| [Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $37.08 | 7.1% | 15 | 19.6 | 0.77× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $31.36 | 6.0% | 10 | 19.6 | 0.51× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $20.97 | 4.8% | 25 | 23.5 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $11.71 | 4.5% | 45 | 39.1 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $5.74 | 4.4% | 87 | 78.3 | 1.11× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.59 | 4.4% | 92 | 97.8 | 0.94× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $2.88 | 4.9% | 168 | 176.1 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) | 16.0% | $1.30 | 4.0% | 304 | 313.1 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) | 17.0% | $0.86 | 2.8% | 324 | 332.7 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.73 | 2.5% | 373 | 352.3 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-well-worn) | 23.3% | $0.45 | 2.0% | 468 | 456.8 | 1.02× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: infection)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) [telephone1410](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/telephone1410) $6.30 $330 52.38x 2026-11-09 01:31 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=400)

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-well-worn) [freberekk](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/freberekk) $6.30 $0.45 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-field-tested) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $6.30 $4.59 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $6.30 $2.88 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $6.30 $0.45 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) [freberekk](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/freberekk) $6.30 $0.73 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $6.30 $1.30 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $6.30 $2.88 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $6.30 $5.74 0.91x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) [freberekk](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/freberekk) $6.30 $0.73 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $6.30 $0.73 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.30 | 83.28% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.3% restricted 0.1% classified 1.1% #ffd700 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% covert knife 0.3% sunny 0.4% #4b69ff 1.0% Legendary 1.2% Mythical 2.0% mil spec 44.3% #8847ff 5.0% uncommon 9.0% Rare 16.0% gray 18.0% best hit $330 (52.38x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.28 on average: an expected loss of $16.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt