--- title: "AUG V.2 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "AUG V.2 ($29.90) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 30 items with odds, observed 85.30% over 1,297 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/401 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [AUG V.2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/401) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · AUG V.2 A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/401?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/401?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/401) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/401?window=all) Price · $29.90 Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $24.91 from 30 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.30% · 1,297 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.37% ±17.42 493 openings 7 days · 83.23% ±11.62 1,108 openings 30 days · 85.30% ±10.74 1,297 openings since tracking started · 85.30% ±10.74 1,297 openings 69.5% 87.5% 105.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/401?window=24h) | 493 | 87.37% ±17.4 | +0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/401?window=7d) | 1,108 | 83.23% ±11.6 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/401) | 1,297 | 85.30% ±10.7 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/401?window=all) | 1,297 | 85.30% ±10.7 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,297 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,182 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,406 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $618 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $552 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $521 | 1.0% | 3 | 0.6 | — | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $475 | 1.0% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $429 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $426 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $358 | 1.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | | [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $289 | 2.3% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.16× | | [AUG \| Sand Storm (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $140 | 2.8% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $127 | 2.5% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× | | [AUG \| Copperhead (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-copperhead-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $112 | 5.4% | 13 | 15.6 | 0.84× | | [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $108 | 5.2% | 8 | 15.6 | 0.51× | | [AUG \| Sand Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $97.91 | 7.9% | 30 | 25.9 | 1.16× | | [AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $77.05 | 6.2% | 29 | 25.9 | 1.12× | | [AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $49.14 | 5.9% | 40 | 38.9 | 1.03× | | [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $44.83 | 5.4% | 32 | 38.9 | 0.82× | | [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $42.81 | 5.2% | 35 | 38.9 | 0.90× | | [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $42.29 | 5.1% | 43 | 38.9 | 1.11× | | [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $21.84 | 7.0% | 117 | 103.8 | 1.13× | | [AUG \| Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $20.85 | 6.7% | 99 | 103.8 | 0.95× | | [AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $17.70 | 5.7% | 101 | 103.8 | 0.97× | | [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $15.36 | 4.9% | 127 | 103.8 | 1.22× | | [AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $14.19 | 4.6% | 90 | 103.8 | 0.87× | | [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $7.97 | 2.6% | 115 | 103.8 | 1.11× | | [AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $6.77 | 2.2% | 97 | 103.8 | 0.93× | | [AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $5.50 | 1.8% | 96 | 103.8 | 0.93× | | [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.78 | 0.9% | 92 | 103.8 | 0.89× | | [AUG \| Random Access (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.93 | 0.6% | 111 | 103.8 | 1.07× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: aug)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $29.90 $618 20.68x 2026-11-10 19:55 UTC [AUG | Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $29.90 $552 18.45x 2026-11-09 03:09 UTC [AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $29.90 $521 17.42x 2026-11-10 19:24 UTC [AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $29.90 $521 17.42x 2026-11-09 01:37 UTC [AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-factory-new) [Xero](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Xero) $29.90 $521 17.42x 2026-11-04 00:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=401) [AUG | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $29.90 $42.81 1.43x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC [AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $29.90 $42.29 1.41x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $29.90 $1.93 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC [AUG | Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) [whitefox](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/whitefox) $29.90 $7.97 0.27x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC [AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $29.90 $49.14 1.64x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC [AUG | Stymphalian (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $29.90 $5.50 0.18x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC [AUG | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $29.90 $42.81 1.43x 2026-11-11 14:53 UTC [AUG | Midnight Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-field-tested) [whitefox](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/whitefox) $29.90 $358 11.96x 2026-11-11 14:53 UTC [AUG | Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $29.90 $15.36 0.51x 2026-11-11 14:53 UTC [AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $29.90 $20.85 0.70x 2026-11-11 14:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $29.90 | 83.31% | 30 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.8% restricted 8.8% mil spec 12.3% classified 29.2% Restricted 2.0% Rare 3.0% uncommon 3.0% #d32ee6 16.0% pink 8.0% Legendary 8.0% Mythical 8.0% best hit $618 (20.68x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt