---
title: "AWP V.2 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "AWP V.2 ($5.19) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.28% from 32 items with odds, observed 81.61% over 11.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/406
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [AWP V.2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/406)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · AWP V.2

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/406?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/406?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/406) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/406?window=all)

Price · $5.19

Advertised RTP · 83.28% · EV $4.32 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.61% · 11.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 63.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 152 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 93.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.43% ±39.40 1,567 openings

7 days · 79.97% ±15.75 9,803 openings

30 days · 81.61% ±14.31 11.9K openings

since tracking started · 81.61% ±14.31 11.9K openings

42.5% 82.5% 122.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/406?window=24h) | 1,567 | 82.43% ±39.4 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/406?window=7d) | 9,803 | 79.97% ±15.8 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/406) | 11.9K | 81.61% ±14.3 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/406?window=all) | 11.9K | 81.61% ±14.3 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $7,377 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,395 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,478 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,996 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,570 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,436 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,340 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,070 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $745 | 8.6% | 10 | 5.9 | 1.68× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $553 | 6.4% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $412 | 4.8% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $355 | 4.1% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $332 | 3.8% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.84× |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $288 | 6.7% | 10 | 11.9 | 0.84× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $240 | 5.5% | 16 | 11.9 | 1.35× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $209 | 4.8% | 11 | 11.9 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $176 | 4.1% | 9 | 11.9 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $116 | 2.7% | 11 | 11.9 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $112 | 2.6% | 14 | 11.9 | 1.18× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $52.43 | 1.2% | 12 | 11.9 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $41.47 | 1.0% | 7 | 11.9 | 0.59× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $35.19 | 0.8% | 9 | 11.9 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $18.80 | 2.2% | 67 | 59.4 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $11.33 | 1.8% | 94 | 83.2 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $9.17 | 2.1% | 150 | 118.8 | 1.26× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $8.55 | 3.0% | 167 | 178.2 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $7.47 | 3.5% | 245 | 237.6 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $5.00 | 3.6% | 378 | 373.2 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 10.0% | $3.43 | 7.9% | 1,247 | 1187.9 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1.52 | 7.0% | 2,348 | 2375.8 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.81 | 4.7% | 2,992 | 2969.8 | 1.01× |
| [Charm \| Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) | 35.0% | $0.28 | 2.3% | 4,065 | 4157.6 | 0.98× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: awp)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $5.19 $1,340 258.2x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [freberekk](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/freberekk) $5.19 $745 143.6x 2026-11-10 15:10 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [Pudding](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Pudding) $5.19 $745 143.6x 2026-11-10 02:41 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $5.19 $745 143.6x 2026-11-09 20:36 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $5.19 $745 143.6x 2026-11-09 17:08 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [smirker18](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/smirker18) $5.19 $745 143.6x 2026-11-08 15:05 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [Uthred z GDA](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Uthred%20z%20GDA) $5.19 $745 143.6x 2026-11-08 06:40 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $5.19 $745 143.6x 2026-11-06 12:16 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $5.19 $745 143.6x 2026-11-06 12:09 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $5.19 $745 143.6x 2026-11-06 12:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=406)

[AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $5.19 $0.81 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $5.19 $0.81 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $5.19 $0.28 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) [so lucky](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/so%20lucky) $5.19 $5.00 0.96x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $5.19 $1.52 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $5.19 $0.28 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $5.19 $3.43 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $5.19 $0.28 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $5.19 $0.28 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $5.19 $5.00 0.96x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.19 | 83.28% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.6% #d32ee6 0.0% classified 0.9% Restricted 0.1% industrial 0.1% restricted 13.7% Legendary 1.5% #8847ff 3.1% Rare 55.0% #4b69ff 25.0% best hit $1,340 (258.2x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.28 on average: an expected loss of $16.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt