---
title: "USP-S V.2 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "USP-S V.2 ($8.59) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 36 items with odds, observed 81.56% over 2,495 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/408
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [USP-S V.2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/408)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · USP-S V.2

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/408?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/408?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/408) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/408?window=all)

Price · $8.59

Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $7.16 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.56% · 2,495 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 100.52% ±35.19 162 openings

7 days · 80.81% ±9.41 2,268 openings

30 days · 81.56% ±8.97 2,495 openings

since tracking started · 81.56% ±8.97 2,495 openings

64.5% 100.5% 136.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/408?window=24h) | 162 | 100.52% ±35.2 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/408?window=7d) | 2,268 | 80.81% ±9.41 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/408) | 2,495 | 81.56% ±8.97 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/408?window=all) | 2,495 | 81.56% ±8.97 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,525 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,170 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $829 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $570 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $364 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $271 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $227 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $226 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $192 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $180 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $157 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $136 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $131 | 1.3% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $122 | 1.7% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $103 | 2.9% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.19× |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $101 | 2.8% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.19× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $100 | 2.8% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.79× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $77.51 | 3.2% | 12 | 7.6 | 1.58× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $74.06 | 3.6% | 11 | 8.8 | 1.24× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $71.81 | 3.5% | 13 | 8.8 | 1.47× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $52.82 | 3.7% | 14 | 12.6 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $52.49 | 3.7% | 16 | 12.6 | 1.27× |
| [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $48.81 | 3.4% | 9 | 12.6 | 0.71× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $47.04 | 3.3% | 9 | 12.6 | 0.71× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $45.45 | 3.2% | 9 | 12.6 | 0.71× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $36.15 | 5.1% | 24 | 25.3 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $30.15 | 4.2% | 36 | 25.3 | 1.43× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $14.10 | 3.0% | 30 | 37.9 | 0.79× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $11.49 | 3.2% | 44 | 50.5 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $7.16 | 5.0% | 130 | 126.3 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.09 | 5.0% | 134 | 126.3 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $6.00 | 5.0% | 145 | 151.5 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $4.22 | 4.7% | 203 | 202.0 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 11.0% | $3.29 | 5.1% | 279 | 277.8 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) | 15.0% | $2.91 | 6.1% | 371 | 378.8 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1.88 | 5.3% | 510 | 505.0 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.84 | 2.3% | 505 | 505.1 | 1.00× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: usp-s)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=408)

[USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $8.59 $7.16 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $8.59 $3.29 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[USP-S | Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $8.59 $48.81 5.68x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $8.59 $77.51 9.02x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $8.59 $2.91 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) [smirker18](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/smirker18) $8.59 $3.29 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) [RetroGod](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/RetroGod) $8.59 $4.22 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) [Bugghappen](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Bugghappen) $8.59 $1.88 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) [白色领带Oba](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%99%BD%E8%89%B2%E9%A2%86%E5%B8%A6Oba) $8.59 $2.91 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) [User1917263](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/User1917263) $8.59 $1.88 0.22x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $8.59 | 83.32% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 9.0% covert 0.6% Ancient 0.0% restricted 33.4% mil spec 25.5% red 0.5% industrial 3.0% Restricted 8.0% Rare 20.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt