--- title: "CS2 (CSGO) Soulstealer Case on DaddySkins: odds & RTP" description: "Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up. Figures from public feeds and chains." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/409 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [CS2 (CSGO) Soulstealer Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/409) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · CS2 (CSGO) Soulstealer Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/409?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/409?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/409) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/409?window=all) Price · $16.29 Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $13.57 from 28 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.75% · 1,386 openings, odds method Variance · 73.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 133 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 242 openings · below min 7 days · 79.81% ±47.52 1,246 openings 30 days · 76.75% ±45.06 1,386 openings since tracking started · 76.75% ±45.06 1,386 openings -0.5% 83.8% 168.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/409?window=24h) | 242 | 59.74% ±107.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/409?window=7d) | 1,246 | 79.81% ±47.5 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/409) | 1,386 | 76.75% ±45.1 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/409?window=all) | 1,386 | 76.75% ±45.1 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,386 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,564 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,673 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,215 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,822 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,003 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,616 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,385 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,383 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,956 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,946 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,802 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,536 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,202 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $900 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $850 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $713 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $571 | 2.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $550 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) | 1 in 2,000 | $500 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $423 | 3.1% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.44× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $383 | 2.8% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $294 | 2.2% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $235 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.44× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $102 | 7.5% | 11 | 13.9 | 0.79× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $96.43 | 7.1% | 8 | 13.9 | 0.58× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $65.32 | 7.2% | 14 | 20.8 | 0.67× | | [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $11.29 | 5.8% | 89 | 97.0 | 0.92× | | [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) | 88.8% | $3.38 | 22.1% | 1,253 | 1230.1 | 1.02× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: soulstealer)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $16.29 $3,003 184.4x 2026-11-10 04:16 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $16.29 $1,946 119.4x 2026-11-10 05:58 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $16.29 $850 52.18x 2026-11-10 01:45 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) [barkfallout723](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/barkfallout723) $16.29 $713 43.80x 2026-11-09 16:36 UTC [AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $16.29 $571 35.08x 2026-11-10 03:56 UTC [Sticker | Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $16.29 $500 30.69x 2026-11-06 14:00 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=409) [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $16.29 $3.38 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $16.29 $3.38 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $16.29 $3.38 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $16.29 $3.38 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $16.29 $3.38 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [12138](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/12138) $16.29 $3.38 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $16.29 $3.38 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $16.29 $3.38 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $16.29 $3.38 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $16.29 $3.38 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $16.29 | 83.31% | 28 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.0% knifes 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert 4.0% restricted 88.8% classified 7.0% mil spec 0.1% exotic 0.1% Covert 0.1% best hit $3,003 (184.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt