--- title: "Moonlight gem case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Moonlight gem ($2.64) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.09% from 12 items with odds, observed 82.18% over 3,809 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/411 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Moonlight gem](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/411) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Moonlight gem A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/411?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/411?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/411) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/411?window=all) Price · $2.64 Advertised RTP · 83.09% · EV $2.19 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.18% · 3,809 openings, odds method Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 78.52% ±18.88 434 openings 7 days · 78.98% ±7.13 3,043 openings 30 days · 82.18% ±6.37 3,809 openings since tracking started · 82.18% ±6.37 3,809 openings 59.0% 78.5% 98.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/411?window=24h) | 434 | 78.52% ±18.9 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/411?window=7d) | 3,043 | 78.98% ±7.13 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/411) | 3,809 | 82.18% ±6.37 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/411?window=all) | 3,809 | 82.18% ±6.37 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,822 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $109 | 2.5% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-night-stripe-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $86.60 | 2.0% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.57× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $45.25 | 2.1% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.78× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $32.00 | 3.6% | 13 | 9.6 | 1.36× | | [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $23.95 | 5.5% | 14 | 19.1 | 0.73× | | [AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $20.31 | 9.3% | 35 | 38.2 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $18.87 | 17.2% | 67 | 76.4 | 0.88× | | [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $10.23 | 14.0% | 126 | 114.7 | 1.10× | | [MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.57 | 5.9% | 188 | 191.1 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $2.24 | 5.1% | 195 | 191.1 | 1.02× | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 21.8% | $1.49 | 14.8% | 823 | 833.2 | 0.99× | | [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-well-worn) | 61.3% | $0.65 | 18.1% | 2,353 | 2341.0 | 1.01× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: moonlight-gem)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=411) [P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-well-worn) [волосатая шпага](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%8F%20%D1%88%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%B0) $2.64 $0.65 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-well-worn) [MilanesaConPure |](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MilanesaConPure%20%7C) $2.64 $0.65 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-well-worn) [Dapper](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dapper) $2.64 $0.65 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-well-worn) [BlueBeard](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BlueBeard) $2.64 $0.65 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) [BlackSkull](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BlackSkull) $2.64 $1.49 0.56x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) [BlueBeard](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BlueBeard) $2.64 $1.49 0.56x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) [BlackSkull](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BlackSkull) $2.64 $1.49 0.56x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) [loord](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/loord) $2.64 $1.49 0.56x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [AUG | Stymphalian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-factory-new) [DangerouS!? \[#w\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/DangerouS!%3F%20%5B%23w%5D) $2.64 $20.31 7.69x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-well-worn) [Ivan Nicipuruk Jebiewdenko](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Ivan%20Nicipuruk%20Jebiewdenko) $2.64 $0.65 0.25x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.64 | 83.09% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% covert knife 0.1% classified 1.4% #4b69ff 0.5% Mythical 31.8% restricted 5.0% violet 61.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.09 on average: an expected loss of $16.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt