--- title: "North Pole case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "North Pole ($100.16) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 26 items with odds, observed 69.11% over 451 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/412 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [North Pole](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/412) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · North Pole A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/412?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/412?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/412) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/412?window=all) Price · $100.16 Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $83.46 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 69.11% · 451 openings, odds method Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 73.27% ±23.79 279 openings 30 days · 69.11% ±18.71 451 openings since tracking started · 69.11% ±18.71 451 openings -0.5% 61.5% 123.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/412?window=24h) | 24 | 41.93% ±81.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/412?window=7d) | 279 | 73.27% ±23.8 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/412) | 451 | 69.11% ±18.7 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/412?window=all) | 451 | 69.11% ±18.7 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 455 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,267 | 15.2% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.88× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $1,008 | 12.1% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.66× | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $997 | 11.9% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.66× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $781 | 9.4% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.66× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $363 | 4.3% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.10× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $347 | 4.2% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.32× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $254 | 3.0% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.88× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $196 | 2.3% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.10× | | [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $128 | 1.5% | 7 | 4.5 | 1.54× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $120 | 1.4% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.10× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $101 | 1.3% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.42× | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $89.43 | 6.4% | 29 | 27.0 | 1.07× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $81.96 | 5.8% | 29 | 27.0 | 1.07× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $81.25 | 5.8% | 19 | 27.0 | 0.70× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $80.48 | 5.7% | 28 | 27.0 | 1.04× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $66.82 | 4.7% | 20 | 27.0 | 0.74× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $28.26 | 2.0% | 26 | 27.0 | 0.96× | | [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $16.78 | 1.2% | 22 | 27.0 | 0.82× | | [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $7.12 | 0.5% | 34 | 27.0 | 1.26× | | [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $6.73 | 0.5% | 28 | 27.0 | 1.04× | | [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $6.04 | 0.4% | 27 | 27.0 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Windblown (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-windblown-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $1.68 | 0.1% | 32 | 27.0 | 1.19× | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $1.39 | 0.1% | 34 | 27.0 | 1.26× | | [Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.32 | 0.0% | 28 | 27.0 | 1.04× | | [MAC-10 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.27 | 0.0% | 31 | 27.0 | 1.15× | | [SSG 08 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 21 | 27.0 | 0.78× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: north-pole)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [✪ zer0^v^](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AA%20zer0%5Ev%5E) $100 $1,267 12.65x 2026-11-07 06:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $100 $1,267 12.65x 2026-11-04 08:58 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [Wado](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Wado) $100 $1,267 12.65x 2026-11-03 19:06 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [noodle](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/noodle) $100 $1,267 12.65x 2026-11-03 04:36 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $100 $1,008 10.06x 2026-11-08 17:07 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-field-tested) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $100 $1,008 10.06x 2026-11-06 11:47 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $100 $1,008 10.06x 2026-11-03 22:40 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) [✪ Rico ✪](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AA%20Rico%20%E2%9C%AA) $100 $997 9.96x 2026-11-07 06:38 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) [L'Italiano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/L'Italiano) $100 $997 9.96x 2026-11-04 15:25 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $100 $997 9.96x 2026-11-04 08:59 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=412) [SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $100 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 03:03 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $100 $80.48 0.80x 2026-11-11 03:03 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $100 $1.39 0.01x 2026-11-11 03:03 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $100 $0.32 0.00x 2026-11-11 03:03 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $100 $81.96 0.82x 2026-11-11 03:03 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) [万能の阿巴](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E4%B8%87%E8%83%BD%E3%81%AE%E9%98%BF%E5%B7%B4) $100 $81.25 0.81x 2026-11-11 03:03 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $100 $81.96 0.82x 2026-11-10 16:29 UTC [Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $100 $128 1.28x 2026-11-10 16:29 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $100 $81.25 0.81x 2026-11-10 16:29 UTC [P250 | Dark Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $100 $6.73 0.07x 2026-11-10 16:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $100 | 83.33% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 21.8% extraordinary 4.0% covert 8.0% mil spec 6.9% red 5.9% gold 5.9% industrial 17.8% restricted 5.9% Rare 5.9% violet 5.9% light blue 5.9% consumer 5.9% best hit $1,267 (12.65x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt